AL

Alamo Group Inc

ALG
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Alamo Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 10.1% TTM vs industry median 6.7% with ROA 7.6% vs median 3.2% - consistent operational outperformance in fragmented equipment sector.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 150M TTM (9.3% of revenue) with debt/equity at 0.18 and 245M cash - fortress balance sheet enables opportunistic M&A.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Working capital of 758M (47% of revenue) tied up in inventory 378M and receivables 335M - capital-intensive operations limit cash conversion.[Working Capital]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Exceeds 400M or >25% of revenueSignals demand weakness or supply chain issues; currently 378M (23% of revenue)
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 8%Would indicate pricing pressure or cost inflation eroding competitive advantage
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 100MWould constrain M&A optionality and signal working capital deterioration

Bull Case

Premium profitability (ROE 10.8%, ROIC 9.0% TTM) with minimal leverage (0.18 D/E) in cyclical industry positions ALG to acquire distressed competitors during downturns.

ROE TTMROIC TTMDebt to Equity

P/E 18.4x vs industry median 24.3x despite superior margins - valuation discount to peers with better fundamentals.

PE RatioOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

EPS growth 4.4% 5Y CAGR vs industry median 13.3% - slow grower trading at discount for a reason. Revenue scale 1.6B limits pricing power.

EPS Growth 5yrTotal Revenue TTM

Goodwill 214M (19% of equity) from acquisitions with intangibles totaling 362M - integration risk and potential impairment if synergies disappoint.

GoodwillGoodwill and Other Intangible Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
58%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation to accelerate as infrastructure spending drives revenue without proportional working capital build.

1-3ymed
  • Asset turnover 1.05x above industry 0.72x median
  • Capex only 2% of revenue TTM
  • Net margin 7.2% vs median 4.4%
FCF 150M on 1.6B revenue TTMCash flow 182M vs capex 32MDebt/equity 0.18 provides expansion capacity
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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