AM

Antero Midstream Corp

AM
Accountable AI Logo

Antero Midstream Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM of 757.9M vs industry median of -180.6M - rare positive FCF generator in capex-heavy midstream sector[Free Cash Flow]
  • Operating margin 58.1% TTM vs industry median 19.1% - 3x advantage from fee-based contracts with parent Antero Resources[Operating Margin]
  • Dividend payout ratio 7yr avg 128% - historically paying more than earnings, funded by FCF but unsustainable if FCF declines[Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 7yr]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 500M TTMWould pressure 7x dividend coverage and force payout cut or debt increase
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 2.0xZero cash buffer means debt increase signals stress or acquisition
  • Operating Margin: Falls below 50%Would indicate contract renegotiation pressure from Antero Resources

Bull Case

Fee-based model with captive customer (Antero Resources) delivers 58% operating margins and 60% FCF margins - structural advantage vs commodity-exposed peers

Operating MarginFree Cash FlowGross Margin

ROE 22.5% TTM vs industry median 9.1% with minimal capex needs (-151.8M vs -1.1B median) - capital-light compounder

ROECapital ExpenditureROIC

Bear Case

Single customer concentration (Antero Resources) creates binary risk - parent distress would devastate revenue base

Total RevenueAccounts Receivable

P/S 6.8x vs industry median 2.8x and P/B 8.8x prices in premium - limited margin of safety if growth stalls

PS RatioPB RatioPE Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

Leverage AM's top insights and create a custom strategy based on them in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.

Take Me to The Editor

Forward Thesis

FCF yield compression likely as capex normalizes, but dividend coverage improving

1-3ymed
  • Capex TTM -151.8M vs industry median -1.1B
  • FCF margin 60.6% enables dividend without debt
  • Debt/equity 1.46x manageable at current rates
FCF 757.9M covers dividend 107.7M 7xInterest expense 193.3M vs EBITDA 1.04B = 5.4x coverageZero cash position limits flexibility
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

See how Antero Midstream Corp ranks across different investment strategies.

Leverage AM's top insights and create a custom strategy in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.

Data Partners
Morningstar Logo

Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Finance, Inc. Disclaimer
accountable.finance is not operated by a broker or a dealer. Under no circumstances does any information posted on accountable.finance represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. In no event shall accountable.finance be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on accountable.finance, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, accountable.finance or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. Stock quotes and fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Logo
© 2026 Accountable Finance, Inc. All rights reserved.