AM

Applied Materials Inc

AMAT
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Applied Materials Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 30.1% vs industry median 2.4% - 12x advantage from semiconductor equipment pricing power[Operating Margin TTM]
  • ROIC TTM 26.4% vs industry median -0.3% - exceptional capital efficiency despite 5.8B inventory build[ROIC TTM]
  • R&D at 3.5B (12% of revenue) funds technology moat while still generating 5.8B FCF TTM[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Exceeds 25% of TTM revenue or grows >15% QoQSignals demand weakness or customer pushouts - leading indicator of revenue miss
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Would indicate pricing pressure or mix shift undermining premium thesis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 4B or FCF margin under 15%Threatens dividend sustainability and R&D investment capacity

Bull Case

Dominant market position with 30% operating margins generates 5.8B FCF TTM at only 0.35 debt/equity - fortress balance sheet enables R&D investment through cycles

Operating Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDebt to Equity

ROIC of 26% vs negative industry median demonstrates structural competitive advantage in capital-intensive equipment market

ROIC TTMROE TTM

Bear Case

P/E 32x at industry median with P/B 13.9x - premium valuation leaves no margin of safety if capex cycle slows

PE RatioPB Ratio

Inventory up to 5.8B (20% of revenue) risks write-downs if fab customers delay orders amid macro weakness

InventoryWorking Capital

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

AI/HBM capex cycle to sustain premium margins through 2027 as fabs expand globally

1-3ymed
  • Leading-edge node transitions require AMAT deposition/etch tools
  • HBM packaging demand accelerating from AI chip requirements
  • CHIPS Act subsidies unlocking US/EU fab construction
Operating margin 30% sustained despite cycleR&D 12% of revenue maintains tech leadInventory 5.8B signals backlog confidence

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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