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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc

AMLX
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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Negative revenue TTM (-665K) signals product withdrawal/failure - company burning 154.5M FCF annually with no commercial revenue stream[Total Revenue TTM]
  • Cash runway critical: 225M cash vs -154M annual burn = ~18 months without financing; recent 192M equity raise extends runway[Cash and Equivalents]
  • R&D spend of 92M (59% of opex) continues despite revenue collapse - binary outcome dependent on pipeline success[Research and Development TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 150MSub-12mo runway triggers forced financing at distressed terms or strategic sale
  • Total Revenue TTM: Returns to positiveAny commercial revenue signals pipeline/partnership progress - thesis inflection
  • Research and Development TTM: Declines >30% QoQR&D cuts signal pipeline abandonment and shift to wind-down mode

Bull Case

Trading at 3.7x book with 332M equity and minimal debt (0.02 D/E) - downside protected by balance sheet if pipeline succeeds

P/B RatioDebt to EquityCommon Stockholders Equity

Continued R&D investment (92M TTM) suggests pipeline conviction; any positive clinical data creates asymmetric upside

Research and Development TTMEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Zero commercial revenue with -154M annual burn creates existential risk; dilution or failure highly probable within 2 years

Total Revenue TTMFree Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

Market cap of 1.2B implies pipeline value that may not materialize - paying 6x annual burn for speculative assets

Market Cap TTMEnterprise Value

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Cash depletion will force strategic action (partnership, sale, or dilution) within 18 months

3-12mhigh
  • 225M cash vs 154M annual burn rate
  • Recent 192M financing signals capital needs
  • No commercial revenue to offset burn
FCF TTM: -154.5MCash: 225M (18mo runway)Revenue TTM: -665K
Valuation Context
Caveats

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