AN

Andersons Inc

ANDE
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Andersons Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • FCF of 233.8M TTM (2% margin) vs industry median 37M - 6x peer cash generation on thin-margin commodity business[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Asset turnover 3.47x TTM vs industry median 2.16x - capital efficiency drives returns despite 0.8% operating margin[Asset Turnover TTM]
  • EPS down 26% YoY but 5Y CAGR +13.8% - cyclical trough, not structural decline[EPS Growth 1 Year]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 5%At 6% gross margin, any compression eliminates operating income entirely
  • Inventory: Rises above 1B or turnover slows899M inventory on thin margins - commodity price drops create impairment risk
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 50MAt 45M, interest consumes 38% of pretax income - rate sensitivity is high

Bull Case

High-velocity asset model (3.47x turnover) generates 6% ROE on sub-1% margins - operational leverage amplifies any margin improvement

Asset Turnover TTMROE TTMOperating Margin TTM

P/S of 0.16x vs median 0.28x and P/B of 1.54x with tangible book = equity - no goodwill impairment risk

PS RatioPB RatioTangible Book Value

Bear Case

Operating margin 0.8% TTM leaves zero buffer - any cost spike or revenue miss swings to losses quickly

Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

Working capital of 631M (54% of equity) tied up in inventory/receivables - commodity price drops create write-down risk

Working CapitalInventoryAccounts Receivable

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation to fund debt reduction, improving equity value as leverage drops from 0.66x D/E

1-3ymed
  • 233.8M FCF covers 774M total debt in 3.3 years
  • Interest expense 45M constraining 73M net income
  • Net debt paydown of 52M in TTM period
Net long-term debt issuance: -52.3M TTMDebt/Equity: 0.66x vs 774M total debtFCF/Debt coverage: 30% annually
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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