AP

Air Products & Chemicals Inc

APD
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Air Products & Chemicals Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Net income TTM is -394.5M despite 2.9B operating income - 795M unusual items and 622.7M other expenses destroyed profitability[Net Income TTM]
  • CapEx of 7.0B TTM (58% of revenue) vs FCF of -3.8B signals massive growth investment phase with negative cash generation[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • Operating margin 24% TTM vs industry median ~0% - structural cost advantage despite current earnings headwinds[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Declines below 4B annuallySignals transition from investment to harvest phase - FCF inflection point
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positiveValidates thesis that current negative FCF is temporary investment phase
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 300MWould indicate debt servicing consuming operating income gains

Bull Case

Core operations generating 2.9B operating income TTM at 24% margins - current losses are non-recurring (795M unusual items). Once CapEx normalizes, FCF could exceed 3B annually.

Operating Income TTMOperating Margin TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Debt/equity of 1.23 manageable for industrial with 26.3B PPE base. Dividend of $7.14/share (62% payout ratio 5Y avg) signals management confidence in cash generation recovery.

Debt to EquityDividends Paid Per Share TTMPPE TTM

Bear Case

FCF of -3.8B TTM with 18.4B total debt creates funding pressure. Interest expense of 214M TTM will grow if rates stay elevated during extended CapEx cycle.

Free Cash Flow TTMTotal Debt TTMInterest Expense TTM

P/E of 20.4x on normalized EPS of $11.55 assumes successful project execution. Any delays or cost overruns on 7B CapEx program could compress multiples.

PE RatioEPS TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Heavy CapEx cycle (7B TTM) positions APD for earnings inflection as projects come online

1-3ymed
  • PPE of 26.3B (64% of assets) indicates capacity build
  • Operating income of 2.9B proves core business strength
  • Industry leader investing through cycle
CapEx 7.0B vs industry median 3.1MOperating margin 24% vs industry ~0%PPE 26.3B TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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