AR
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
ARR—
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- P/B of 0.89x means shares trade at 11% discount to tangible book value of $20.36/share - rare for mREITs[Price to Book Ratio]
- Dividend yield ~15% (2.88/share TTM) but 5Y payout ratio of 435% signals unsustainable - funded by capital destruction[Dividend Payout Ratio (5Y Avg)]
- Interest expense of 595.8M TTM dwarfs revenue of 73.1M - spread compression evident, ROE just 3.7% vs 8.6% median[Interest Expense]
Watch Triggers
- Dividends Paid Per Share: Cut below $2.00 annualized — Would signal management acknowledging unsustainability; stock likely drops 20%+ on announcement
- Book Value Per Share: Falls below $18.00 — Would indicate portfolio losses exceeding income; current discount becomes premium
- Net Common Stock Issuance: Exceeds $500M in any quarter — Accelerating dilution to fund dividend signals desperation
Bull Case
Trading at 0.89x book provides 11% margin of safety to NAV; if rates stabilize, discount could close to 1.0x ($20.36 target)
Price to Book RatioBook Value Per Share
FCF of 179.1M TTM positive despite spread compression; covers preferred dividends (3M) with room for common if dividend reset lower
Free Cash FlowPreferred Stock Dividend Paid
Bear Case
Structural dividend trap: 15% yield attracts income seekers but -18.6% 5Y EPS decline and 435% payout ratio guarantee future cuts
Dividend Payout Ratio (5Y Avg)EPS Growth (5Y)
Leverage extreme: 17.2B liabilities on 2.1B equity (8x) with 595.8M interest expense vs 73.1M revenue - spread-dependent survival
Total LiabilitiesInterest ExpenseTotal Revenue
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
30%
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Forward Thesis
Dividend cut likely within 12 months as payout ratio remains structurally unsustainable
3-12mhigh
- 435% 5Y payout ratio requires constant equity issuance
- EPS of $0.13 TTM vs $2.88 dividend = 23x coverage gap
- Net stock issuance of 393.7M TTM dilutes existing holders
EPS TTM: $0.13 vs DPS TTM: $2.885Y EPS growth: -18.6%Net common stock issuance: 393.7M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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ARR Fundamentals
Finance and Insurance → Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$2.0B | — | ||
$1.96B | — | ||
152 | — | ||
$73.06M | -49.9% | — | |
$0.13 | -95.5% | — | |
0% | — | ||
88.3% | -2.0% | — | |
$179.08M | -22.6% | — | |
0.04 | -6.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
ARR Dividend History
183 dividends
2026
$0.240001/15/26$0.2400
2025
$2.880012/15/25$0.2400
11/17/25$0.2400
10/15/25$0.2400
09/15/25$0.2400
08/15/25$0.2400
07/15/25$0.2400
06/16/25$0.2400
05/15/25$0.2400
04/15/25$0.2400
03/17/25$0.2400
02/14/25$0.2400
01/15/25$0.2400
2024
$2.880012/16/24$0.2400
11/15/24$0.2400
10/15/24$0.2400
09/16/24$0.2400
08/15/24$0.2400
07/15/24$0.2400
06/17/24$0.2400
05/14/24$0.2400
04/12/24$0.2400
03/14/24$0.2400
02/14/24$0.2400
01/12/24$0.2400
2023
$5.000012/14/23$0.4000
11/14/23$0.4000
10/13/23$0.4000
09/14/23$0.4000
08/14/23$0.4000
07/14/23$0.4000
06/14/23$0.4000
05/12/23$0.4000
04/14/23$0.4000
03/14/23$0.4000
02/14/23$0.5000
01/13/23$0.5000
2022
$6.000012/14/22$0.5000
11/14/22$0.5000
10/14/22$0.5000
09/14/22$0.5000
08/12/22$0.5000
07/14/22$0.5000
06/14/22$0.5000
05/13/22$0.5000
04/14/22$0.5000
03/14/22$0.5000
02/14/22$0.5000
01/14/22$0.5000
2021
$6.000012/14/21$0.5000
11/12/21$0.5000
10/14/21$0.5000
09/14/21$0.5000
08/13/21$0.5000
07/14/21$0.5000
06/14/21$0.5000
05/14/21$0.5000
04/14/21$0.5000
03/12/21$0.5000
02/12/21$0.5000
01/14/21$0.5000
2020
$6.000012/14/20$0.5000
11/13/20$0.5000
10/14/20$0.5000
09/14/20$0.5000
08/14/20$0.5000
07/14/20$0.5000
06/12/20$0.4500
03/13/20$0.8500
02/13/20$0.8500
01/14/20$0.8500
2019
$10.800012/13/19$0.8500
11/14/19$0.8500
10/11/19$0.8500
09/13/19$0.8500
08/14/19$0.8500
07/12/19$0.8500
06/14/19$0.9500
05/14/19$0.9500
04/12/19$0.9500
03/14/19$0.9500
02/14/19$0.9500
01/14/19$0.9500
2018
$11.400012/14/18$0.9500
11/14/18$0.9500
10/12/18$0.9500
09/14/18$0.9500
08/14/18$0.9500
07/13/18$0.9500
06/14/18$0.9500
05/14/18$0.9500
04/12/18$0.9500
03/14/18$0.9500
02/14/18$0.9500
01/12/18$0.9500
2017
$11.400012/14/17$0.9500
11/14/17$0.9500
10/13/17$0.9500
09/14/17$0.9500
08/11/17$0.9500
07/13/17$0.9500
06/13/17$0.9500
05/11/17$0.9500
04/12/17$0.9500
03/13/17$0.9500
02/13/17$0.9500
01/12/17$0.9500
2016
$15.100012/13/16$1.1000
11/10/16$1.1000
10/12/16$1.1000
09/13/16$1.1000
08/11/16$1.1000
07/13/16$1.1000
06/13/16$1.1000
05/12/16$1.1000
04/13/16$1.3500
03/11/16$1.6500
02/10/16$1.6500
01/13/16$1.6500
2015
$19.450012/14/15$1.6500
11/12/15$1.6500
10/13/15$1.6500
09/11/15$1.6500
08/13/15$1.6500
07/13/15$1.6000
06/11/15$1.6000
05/13/15$1.6000
04/13/15$1.6000
03/11/15$1.6000
02/11/15$1.6000
01/13/15$1.6000
2014
$24.000012/11/14$2.0000
11/13/14$2.0000
10/10/14$2.0000
09/11/14$2.0000
08/13/14$2.0000
07/11/14$2.0000
06/12/14$2.0000
05/13/14$2.0000
04/11/14$2.0000
03/13/14$2.0000
02/12/14$2.0000
01/13/14$2.0000
2013
$32.400012/12/13$2.0000
11/13/13$2.0000
10/10/13$2.0000
09/12/13$2.8000
08/13/13$2.8000
07/11/13$2.8000
06/12/13$2.8000
05/13/13$2.8000
04/11/13$2.8000
03/13/13$3.2000
02/13/13$3.2000
01/11/13$3.2000
2012
$48.000012/12/12$3.6000
11/13/12$3.6000
10/11/12$3.6000
09/12/12$4.0000
08/13/12$4.0000
07/12/12$4.0000
06/13/12$4.0000
05/11/12$4.0000
04/12/12$4.0000
03/13/12$4.4000
02/13/12$4.4000
01/11/12$4.4000
2011
$56.400012/13/11$4.4000
11/10/11$4.4000
10/12/11$4.4000
09/13/11$4.8000
08/11/11$4.8000
07/13/11$4.8000
06/13/11$4.8000
05/11/11$4.8000
04/13/11$4.8000
03/11/11$4.8000
02/11/11$4.8000
01/12/11$4.8000
2010
$15.560012/16/10$0.3600
09/21/10$14.4000
06/01/10$0.4000
03/11/10$0.4000
ARR Stock Splits
2 stock splits
10/02/235:1 split
08/03/158:1 split
ARR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/22/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/23/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/23/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/12/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/23/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/24/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/25/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/15/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/25/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/26/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/26/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/15/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/26/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
07/27/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/27/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/16/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/27/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/22/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/21/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/17/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/21/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/22/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/01/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/19/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/23/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/24/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
04/24/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/14/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/24/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/25/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/25/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/14/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/25/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
07/26/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/01/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/15/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/02/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/02/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/02/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/18/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/06/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
07/29/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/29/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/24/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/29/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/31/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/05/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/27/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
10/28/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/01/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/02/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/22/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/01/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/01/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/02/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
03/06/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/03/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/03/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/04/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
03/10/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/12/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/05/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/13/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
03/30/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/05/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/07/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/11/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
12/31/08 | 12/31/08 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/07 | 12/31/07 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/07 | 09/30/07 | Unknown | -- |