AX

American Express Co

AXP
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American Express Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • ROE TTM of 33.9% vs industry median 10% - 3.4x advantage from high-yield card portfolio and capital-light model[Return on Equity]
  • FCF TTM of 18.9B (27% of revenue) with capex under 3% - generates 7.5% FCF yield on 251B market cap[Free Cash Flow]
  • EPS 5Y CAGR of 26% vs industry median 8% - 3x faster compounding despite mature business[EPS Growth 5 Year]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Margin TTM: Falls below 12%Credit losses or rate pressure compressing - current 15% has 300bps buffer
  • Total Revenue 3 Year Growth: Decelerates below 7%Premium spend thesis breaks if growth converges to industry 5%
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 9BFunding cost inflation directly hits EPS - 10% increase = 1B pretax drag

Bull Case

Capital return machine: 18.9B FCF TTM funds 2.34/share dividend plus buybacks at 7.7x book - can retire 7.5% of shares annually

Free Cash Flow TTMPrice to Book RatioDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Closed-loop moat: 70.4B revenue with 34% ROE shows pricing power competitors can't replicate without issuer+acquirer integration

Total Revenue TTMReturn on Equity TTMAsset Turnover TTM

Bear Case

Interest expense TTM of 8.2B (12% of revenue) vs industry median 34M - rate sensitivity magnified by funding model

Interest Expense TTMTotal DebtNet Margin TTM

P/E of 24x vs industry 12x prices in perfection - credit deterioration or spend slowdown has 2x downside vs peers

PE RatioPS RatioPrice to Book Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

Premium card spend resilience to support 10%+ revenue growth through economic cycle

1-3ymed
  • Affluent cardholder base less sensitive to macro
  • Closed-loop network captures full transaction economics
  • Asset turnover 0.25 vs industry 0.04 shows capital efficiency
Revenue 3Y CAGR 10.9% vs industry 5.1%Net margin 15% stable through rate cycleROE 34% with 1.8x debt/equity
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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