BA

Boeing Co

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Boeing Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Negative equity of -8.3B with 53.4B total debt - liabilities exceed assets by 8.3B, technically insolvent balance sheet[Total Equity]
  • Gross margin collapsed to 1.1% TTM (down 61% YoY) vs industry median 19.3% - production costs consuming nearly all revenue[Gross Margin]
  • FCF of -6.4B TTM with 82.4B inventory - cash burn accelerating while planes sit undelivered[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow: Turns positive for 2 consecutive quartersFirst signal that inventory-to-cash conversion is working and liquidity crisis abating
  • Gross Margin: Recovers above 10%Indicates production cost normalization - currently at 1.1% vs 19% industry median
  • Inventory: Declines by 10B+ from 82.4BProves delivery backlog clearing and cash generation thesis intact

Bull Case

82.4B inventory represents future revenue already built - delivery normalization converts to massive cash inflow without additional production cost

InventoryWorking CapitalFree Cash Flow

Duopoly with Airbus in commercial aviation creates pricing power once operational issues resolve - 80.8B TTM revenue demonstrates demand exists

Total RevenueEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Negative equity -8.3B with 53.4B debt and -6.4B FCF creates existential liquidity risk - interest expense 2.9B TTM consuming scarce cash

Total EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense

Operating margin -10.4% TTM with gross margin at 1.1% - structural cost problem, not temporary, requires years to fix

Operating MarginGross MarginNet Income

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Inventory liquidation could generate 15-20B cash over 24 months if production/delivery normalizes

1-3ylow
  • 82.4B inventory vs 6.2B cash creates massive conversion opportunity
  • Working capital of 18.8B locked in undelivered aircraft
  • Backlog monetization requires FAA certification progress
Inventory 82.4B = 102% of annual revenue TTMCurrent assets 122B vs current liabilities 103BCash burn -6.4B FCF TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

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