BK

Bank of New York Mellon Corp

BK
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Bank of New York Mellon Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Net margin TTM 27% vs industry median 25.7% with 5.2B net income - top-tier profitability for custody bank scale[Net Margin TTM]
  • Goodwill 16.8B is 43% of common equity (39B) - acquisition-heavy model creates impairment exposure[Goodwill]
  • FCF TTM 1.6B vs operating cash flow 3.1B - 49% conversion rate constrained by 1.5B capex[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Impairment charge >1B or goodwill/equity ratio exceeds 50%Would signal acquisition strategy destroying value; directly hits equity
  • Net Margin TTM: Drops below 22% for two consecutive quartersFee compression from competition or rate pressure would erode moat
  • ROE TTM: Falls below 10% (industry median)Loss of return premium would eliminate valuation support

Bull Case

Dominant custody/clearing franchise with 27% net margin and 13.7% ROE TTM - scale advantages compound as AUC grows without proportional cost increases

Net Margin TTMROE TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Cash position of 119.9B (26% of assets) provides optionality for M&A, buybacks, or weathering credit stress

Cash and EquivalentsTotal Assets

Bear Case

Tangible book 16.7B vs common equity 39B - 57% of equity is intangibles, vulnerable to goodwill writedowns in downturn

Tangible Book ValueGoodwill and Other Intangible Assets

FCF of 1.6B supports limited capital return; 30.6B financing outflow TTM signals aggressive balance sheet management

Free Cash Flow TTMCash Flow from Continuing Financing Activities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
58%

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Forward Thesis

Fee-based custody model insulates BK from rate cycle volatility better than traditional banks

1-3ymed
  • Interest expense 21B reflects deposit funding, not credit risk
  • Asset-light model with PPE only 3.5B on 455B assets
  • ROIC 6.8% vs median 4.1% shows capital efficiency
ROE 13.7% vs median 10% despite low leverageAsset turnover 4.4% vs median 3.8%Debt/equity 0.89 conservative for sector
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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