BM

Bank of Montreal

BMO
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Bank of Montreal AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Net margin TTM 24.1% vs industry median 25.8% - in line with peers despite $1.5T asset base requiring massive interest expense ($42B TTM)[Net Margin TTM]
  • Goodwill $16.8B is 19% of common equity ($86.5B) - manageable impairment risk vs banks with 50%+ ratios[Goodwill TTM]
  • FCF TTM $8.5B on $10.2B operating cash flow - 83% conversion despite $1.7B capex, funds $4.6B dividends with room to spare[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • ROE TTM: Falls below 8%Below cost of equity destroys shareholder value; dividend sustainability questioned
  • Asset Impairment Charge TTM: Exceeds $500MSignals credit deterioration in loan book; $178M current level is early warning
  • Net Margin TTM: Falls below 20%Margin compression from 24% would indicate NIM pressure or rising credit costs

Bull Case

Trading at P/B 1.5x with 10.3% ROE and 5.5% dividend yield ($6.44/share TTM) - value play if ROE stabilizes above cost of equity

P/B Ratio TTMROE TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

P/E 11.7x vs industry median 12.6x with $8.7B net income TTM - discount despite top-tier scale ($1.5T assets)

P/E RatioNet Income TTMTotal Assets TTM

Bear Case

Interest expense $42B TTM exceeds total revenue $36B - bank is structurally dependent on spread income in falling rate environment

Interest Expense TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Debt/equity 3.24x with $280B total debt - regulatory capital constraints limit growth and buyback capacity

Debt to EquityTotal Debt TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

ROE likely to compress toward 9% as credit cycle normalizes and NIM pressure intensifies

1-3ymed
  • ROE TTM 10.3% already below historical bank norms of 12-15%
  • Interest expense $42B TTM reflects rate sensitivity
  • Debt/equity 3.24x limits balance sheet flexibility
ROA TTM 0.6% vs industry median 1.0%ROIC TTM 2.4% on $363B invested capitalAsset impairment $178M TTM signals credit stress
Valuation Context
Caveats

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