BM

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co

BMY
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Bristol-Myers Squibb Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is -23.9B due to 42.5B in goodwill/intangibles (44% of assets) - balance sheet entirely dependent on acquired IP value.[Tangible Book Value]
  • FCF TTM of 15.3B (32% of revenue) covers 5.1B dividend at 2.9x, but debt/equity of 2.75x constrains flexibility.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • R&D spend of 10.6B TTM (22% of revenue) vs industry median of 38M - massive pipeline investment sustaining competitive moat.[Research and Development TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets: Impairment charge >5B or intangibles decline >15%42.5B intangibles exceeds equity - any impairment directly erodes already-negative tangible book
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 3.0x or interest coverage falls below 5xCurrent 2.75x D/E with 5.1x EBIT/interest leaves limited buffer for revenue decline
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 12B or FCF margin drops under 25%Current 15.3B FCF supports both 5.1B dividend and deleveraging - decline forces tradeoff

Bull Case

FCF yield of 14.5% (15.3B/105B market cap) with PE of 12.2x vs industry 20.2x suggests deep value if pipeline delivers.

Free Cash Flow TTMPE RatioPS Ratio

Operating margin 23.8% with 10.6B R&D spend demonstrates ability to invest heavily while maintaining profitability.

Operating Margin TTMResearch and Development TTM

Bear Case

Debt/equity 2.75x with negative tangible book (-23.9B) leaves no margin of safety if drug revenues decline.

Debt to EquityTangible Book ValueTotal Debt

120% 5-year dividend payout ratio indicates historical cash flow insufficient for dividends - funded by debt.

Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yrDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will prioritize debt reduction over dividend growth through 2027

1-3yhigh
  • 51B total debt at 2.75x D/E ratio
  • 15.3B annual FCF provides deleveraging capacity
  • 5-year payout ratio avg of 120% unsustainable
Net debt 33.3B vs 18.6B equityInterest expense 1.96B TTM (13% of EBIT)Dividend payout ratio 5yr avg: 120%

Margin compression risk if key drug patents expire without pipeline replacements

3-5ymed
  • Operating margin 23.8% relies on patent-protected drugs
  • Goodwill 21.7B at risk of impairment
  • R&D productivity must deliver to maintain margins
Gross margin 69.5% vs industry 54.7%Intangibles 44% of total assetsROE 33.8% depends on leverage
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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