CA

Conagra Brands Inc

CAG
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Conagra Brands Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 10.5B is 118% of equity (8.9B) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-4.0B), creating material impairment risk[Goodwill]
  • EPS collapsed -72% YoY despite only -13% gross profit decline - operating leverage working in reverse[EPS Growth 1yr]
  • FCF yield of 13.9% (1.1B FCF vs 8.2B market cap) while paying 1.40/share dividend (75% payout ratio TTM)[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announced10.5B goodwill vs 8.9B equity means even 15% writedown wipes half of book value
  • Dividend Payout Ratio: Exceeds 100% for 2+ quartersCurrently 75% TTM but 85% 5yr avg - EPS decline pushes toward unsustainability
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 10%Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest = 3.7x) depends on maintaining current margins

Bull Case

Deep value at 9.2x P/E (vs industry 17.8x) with 13.9% FCF yield provides margin of safety if turnaround materializes

P/E RatioFree Cash Flow TTMP/S Ratio

Operating margin 11.9% is 2.3x industry median (5.2%) - cost structure advantage persists despite revenue pressure

Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

Goodwill at 118% of equity with negative tangible book - any impairment directly destroys shareholder equity

GoodwillTangible Book ValueTotal Equity

EPS -17% over 5yr and -72% YoY signals structural decline, not cyclical weakness - dividend cut risk elevated

EPS Growth 5yrEPS Growth 1yrDividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yr

Bull vs Bear Balance

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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk if earnings decline continues - payout ratio already elevated

1-3ymed
  • 5yr avg payout ratio 85% vs industry 33%
  • EPS down 17% over 5 years
  • Debt/equity at 0.93 limits flexibility
Dividend 1.40/share vs EPS 1.86 TTMTotal debt 8.3B vs FCF 1.1BInterest expense 409M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

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