CA

Cardinal Health Inc

CAH
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Cardinal Health Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-2.9B) with negative working capital (-1.7B) - classic distributor model where CAH gets paid before paying suppliers (36.9B payables vs 13.8B receivables)[Working Capital]
  • Revenue 234.3B TTM growing 22% YoY vs industry median 3% - 7x faster growth at massive scale, driving 4.5B FCF despite razor-thin 0.7% net margin[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Asset turnover 4.8x vs industry median 2.2x - capital-light model generates 234B revenue on 55B assets, enabling 3.2% ROA despite sub-1% margins[Asset Turnover]

Watch Triggers

  • Accounts Payable: Decline >10% without corresponding revenue dropSignals supplier terms tightening - destroys negative working capital advantage
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 0.8%At 1.1% margin, 30bps compression cuts net income 30%+ given fixed interest
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Decelerates below 5%Float benefit requires growth; stagnation exposes thin-margin vulnerability

Bull Case

Negative working capital (-1.7B) creates permanent float - suppliers fund operations while CAH earns on 4.6B cash. Model scales: 22% revenue growth = more float

Working CapitalAccounts PayableCash and Equivalents

FCF yield 9.4% (4.5B/47.4B market cap) with 29% 3Y EPS CAGR vs industry 5% - growth at value pricing despite P/E 28x near industry median 27x

Free Cash Flow TTMEPS Growth 3YP/E Ratio

Bear Case

Goodwill 9.7B represents 338% of negative equity - any impairment directly hits already-negative book value, limiting financial flexibility for M&A or downturns

GoodwillCommon Stockholders EquityTangible Book Value

Operating margin 1.1% leaves zero buffer - interest expense 263M is 10% of operating income 2.5B; any margin compression threatens profitability

Operating Margin TTMInterest ExpenseOperating Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

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Forward Thesis

FCF will sustain 4B+ annually as negative working capital scales with revenue growth

1-3yhigh
  • Payables (36.9B) exceed receivables + inventory by 5.5B
  • 22% revenue growth amplifies float benefit
  • Capex under 600M annually
FCF 4.5B TTM on 565M capexWorking capital -1.7BOperating cash flow 5.0B TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

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