CA

Cal-Maine Foods Inc

CALM
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Cal-Maine Foods Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • Zero debt with 55% ROE TTM vs industry median -5% - exceptional capital efficiency without leverage amplification.[ROE TTM]
  • Operating margin 36% TTM vs industry median -6% - structural cost advantage in commodity business.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 1.2B TTM (28% margin) funds 8.32/share dividend - 32% payout ratio leaves buyback optionality.[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Signals egg price normalization - current 44% is 2-3x historical average.
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 15%Would indicate cycle turning - earnings could compress 50%+ from current levels.
  • Inventory: Rises above 400MIndustry oversupply signal - flock rebuilding creates pricing pressure.

Bull Case

Fortress balance sheet (zero debt, 1.6B working capital) enables opportunistic M&A during industry distress while competitors struggle.

Debt to EquityWorking CapitalCash and Equivalents

Vertically integrated scale leader with 1.2B TTM FCF can weather commodity downturns that eliminate smaller competitors.

Free Cash Flow TTMTotal Revenue TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Current 36% operating margin reflects avian flu supply shock - historical margins 5-10% suggest 70%+ earnings decline risk.

Operating Margin TTMEPS TTMEPS Growth 5Y TTM

Commodity business with no pricing power - 3Y revenue CAGR 12% entirely volume/price-driven, not structural growth.

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Margin normalization likely as egg prices revert from avian flu-driven highs.

1-3yhigh
  • Gross margin 44% TTM vs historical 15-20% range
  • Industry supply rebuilding post-outbreak
  • Commodity pricing mean-reversion pattern
Operating margin 36% vs industry median -6%5Y EPS CAGR 101% reflects abnormal cycleNet margin 29% TTM unsustainable in commodities
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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