CA
Avis Budget Group Inc
CAR—
Avis Budget Group Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative equity of -2.4B with 28.6B debt (88% of assets) creates existential leverage risk if fleet values decline further[Total Debt]
- FCF TTM of -9.9B driven by 13.5B capex (fleet purchases) vs 3.6B operating cash flow - burning capital rapidly[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Gross margin 66.9% vs industry median 38.3% masks operating loss (-3M TTM) from 7.6B operating expenses[Operating Margin TTM]
Watch Triggers
- EBITDA TTM: Falls below 1B or interest coverage <2x — Signals debt service stress and potential covenant breach
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Remains negative >2B for another quarter — Indicates fleet capex cycle not normalizing, liquidity drain continues
- Total Equity: Negative equity widens beyond -3B — Deepening insolvency risk, may trigger lender actions
Bull Case
EV/EBITDA of ~22x (32.6B EV / 1.4B EBITDA) compresses to <10x if depreciation normalizes and EBITDA doubles to 3B+
EBITDA TTMEnterprise Value
P/S of 0.40 vs industry median 1.25 prices in distress; any margin recovery creates asymmetric upside
P/S RatioGross Margin TTM
Bear Case
28.6B debt at 408M interest expense (28% of EBITDA) with negative equity - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated
Total DebtInterest Expense TTM
ROA of -6.4% and net margin -18.4% show asset-heavy model destroying value; no path to positive equity visible
ROA TTMNet Margin TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
30%
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Forward Thesis
Fleet depreciation normalization could swing operating income 1B+ positive within 12-18 months
1-3ylow
- Used car prices stabilizing after 2022-2024 correction
- 4.1B depreciation gap (EBITDA 1.4B vs EBIT -2.6B)
- Revenue stable at 11.4B despite fleet value writedowns
EBITDA TTM 1.4B positive despite net lossPPE 23.1B (71% of assets) drives depreciationRevenue -3.1% 3Y CAGR shows demand stability
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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CAR Fundamentals
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Rental and Leasing Services
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$4.57B | — | ||
$32.6B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$11.4B | -3.2% | — | |
$-7.96 | — | ||
-0.03% | -6.5% | — | |
-18.4% | -21.8% | — | |
$-9.87B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
CAR Dividend History
10 dividends
12/21/23$10.0000
03/14/06$0.1100
12/13/05$0.1100
09/13/05$0.1100
06/14/05$0.0900
03/15/05$0.0900
12/14/04$0.0900
09/14/04$0.0900
06/15/04$0.0700
03/16/04$0.0700
CAR Stock Splits
No stock splits
CAR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/28/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/30/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/08/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/14/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/01/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/06/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/02/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/16/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/01/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/02/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/16/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/01/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/02/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/03/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/17/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/02/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/04/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/04/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/17/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/30/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/29/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/01/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/20/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/01/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/06/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/02/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/21/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/06/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/08/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/03/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/22/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/07/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/08/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/04/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/21/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/03/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/04/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/24/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/03/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/04/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/05/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/23/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/30/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/05/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/08/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/21/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/01/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/07/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/08/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/21/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/09/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/08/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/09/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/29/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/09/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/08/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/06/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/24/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/05/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/06/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/06/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/24/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/03/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/06/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/07/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
02/26/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/07/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
08/07/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
05/07/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
02/29/08 | 12/31/07 | 10-K | |
11/08/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/08/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
05/10/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
11/21/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
08/09/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
05/03/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/02/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/02/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
05/05/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-K | |
11/02/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
08/02/04 | 06/30/04 | 10-Q | |
05/03/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/04 | 12/31/03 | 10-K | |
11/06/03 | 09/30/03 | 8-K | |
08/07/03 | 06/30/03 | 8-K | |
05/09/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/05/03 | 12/31/02 | 5 | |
11/04/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
08/14/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/10/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
04/01/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K | |
11/14/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/14/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/11/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/00 | 12/31/00 | 11-K | |
11/14/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
07/28/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/11/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |