CB

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc

CBRL
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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 2.76x with 1.2B total debt vs 8.9M cash creates severe liquidity risk; interest expense (18.4M TTM) nearly equals operating income (38M).[Debt to Equity]
  • EPS collapsed 49% YoY and 34% over 3Y while revenue only declined 5.7% TTM - margin compression accelerating faster than topline erosion.[EPS Growth 1Y]
  • FCF of 14.2M TTM on 170M operating cash flow - capex of 156M consuming 92% of cash generation, leaving minimal buffer.[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 0.5% or turns negativeAt 1.1% margin, any further compression risks inability to service 18.4M annual interest
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Decline exceeds -8% for two consecutive quartersHigh operating leverage means revenue declines amplify into earnings collapse
  • Free Cash Flow: Turns negative for full fiscal yearWould force dividend cut (currently 1.00/share) or additional debt

Bull Case

P/S of 0.22x vs industry median 0.81x and P/E of 24x vs 19.5x median suggests market pricing in turnaround failure - any stabilization could re-rate.

PS RatioPE Ratio

Asset turnover of 1.58x vs 0.90x industry median shows efficient capital utilization; 1.8B PPE base could support recovery without major reinvestment.

Asset TurnoverPPE

Bear Case

Interest coverage ratio of ~2x (38M operating income / 18.4M interest) leaves no margin for further deterioration; covenant breach risk elevated.

Interest ExpenseOperating Income

Negative working capital (-288M) with current ratio of 0.51x (306M assets / 594M liabilities) creates refinancing dependency.

Working CapitalCurrent Liabilities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
30%

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Forward Thesis

Margin recovery unlikely without revenue stabilization; operating leverage works in reverse at -5.7% revenue decline.

1-3yhigh
  • Operating margin 1.1% vs 5.1% industry median
  • Gross margin declining (-11.3% YoY gross profit)
  • High fixed cost base (1.8B PPE)
Operating income 38M on 3.4B revenue TTMInterest expense 18.4M nearly half of EBITRevenue -1.7% 3Y CAGR vs industry +6%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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