CH

Chegg Inc

CHGG

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Chegg Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Revenue collapsed 43% YoY (TTM 448M) vs industry median +7% growth - AI disruption accelerating structural decline[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Operating margin -24% (TTM) vs industry median +10% - burning cash on operations despite 63% gross margin[Operating Margin]
  • Trading at 0.22x P/S vs industry median 1.24x - market pricing in continued deterioration or terminal decline[P/S Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Decline moderates to <20% or stabilizesAny deceleration in decline signals potential floor - key for survival thesis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negativeFCF turning negative triggers liquidity crisis given 38M cash vs 63M current debt
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 25MApproaching debt refinancing risk with limited runway

Bull Case

Extreme valuation (0.7x P/B, 0.22x P/S) prices in bankruptcy - any stabilization creates upside. Tangible book 139M vs 98M market cap.

P/B RatioP/S RatioTangible Book Value

Still generating 43M operating cash flow (TTM) and 8M FCF despite losses - not yet cash-burning death spiral

Cash Flow TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

AI disruption is existential - ChatGPT directly substitutes core product. 43% revenue decline may accelerate further with no floor visible

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Balance sheet deteriorating: current debt (63M) exceeds cash (38M), negative working capital (-11M), and 57% debt/equity

Current DebtCash and EquivalentsDebt to Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Revenue decline likely to continue as AI tools replace core homework help business model

1-3yhigh
  • 43% revenue decline accelerating from 22% 3Y CAGR decline
  • R&D spend (117M) exceeds operating cash flow (43M)
  • Current debt (63M) exceeds cash (38M)
5Y revenue CAGR -13% shows multi-year declineNegative working capital (-11M) signals liquidity stressROIC -15% destroying shareholder value

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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