CH

Choice Hotels International Inc

CHH
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Choice Hotels International Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 29.3% TTM is 4x industry median (7.3%) - franchise-heavy model drives exceptional unit economics[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Debt/equity 13.5x with tangible book value -1.2B - leveraged buyback strategy leaves minimal equity cushion[Debt to Equity]
  • ROE 120% TTM vs industry median -0.3% - tiny equity base inflates returns but masks leverage risk[Return on Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 100M or 25% of operating incomeSignals debt service consuming margin advantage; refinancing at higher rates would compress earnings
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Would indicate franchise fee pressure or cost inflation eroding core competitive advantage
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 100MLimits debt paydown capacity and dividend sustainability given leverage levels

Bull Case

Asset-light franchisor model generates 29% operating margins with 8% FCF yield (124M FCF on 4.4B market cap TTM) - rare capital efficiency in lodging

Operating Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMROE

P/E 14.8x TTM below industry median 23.2x despite 4x better margins - valuation discount ignores structural advantages

P/E RatioOperating Margin TTMNet Margin TTM

Bear Case

Total debt 2.0B on 150M equity (13.5x leverage) with 89M interest expense TTM consuming 23% of operating income - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated

Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

Goodwill 304M is 203% of equity - any franchise impairment could eliminate remaining book value

GoodwillCommon Stockholders EquityTangible Book Value

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Franchise fee growth will sustain 25%+ operating margins despite flat RevPAR environment

1-3ymed
  • Asset-light model: 47% gross margin with minimal capex needs
  • Recurring royalty streams from 7,500+ franchised properties
  • Operating leverage: 4.5% revenue growth drove disproportionate margin
Operating margin 29.3% TTM vs 7.3% industry medianCapex -143M TTM (9% of revenue) mostly discretionaryNet margin 23.9% TTM vs industry median -0.5%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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