CL

Colgate-Palmolive Co

CL
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Colgate-Palmolive Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • ROIC of 32% TTM on 9.3B invested capital - exceptional capital efficiency despite 9.8x debt/equity leverage[Return on Invested Capital]
  • Negative tangible book value (-4.7B) with goodwill at 4.3x equity - balance sheet entirely dependent on brand value[Tangible Book Value]
  • FCF of 3.4B TTM covers 2.0B dividends + debt service with 1.4B cushion; 17% FCF yield on invested capital[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Rises above 400M annuallyAt 8.4B debt, rate increases compress FCF available for dividends; current 3.2% avg rate is unsustainably low
  • Gross Margin: Falls below 55%Would signal loss of pricing power and compress operating margin toward industry median, invalidating bull thesis
  • Goodwill: Any impairment chargeGoodwill is 4.3x equity; even 20% impairment would eliminate stockholders' equity entirely

Bull Case

Exceptional capital efficiency: 32% ROIC TTM with 1.17x asset turnover generates 3.4B FCF annually on minimal capex (571M), funding dividends and buybacks without equity dilution

Return on Invested CapitalFree Cash FlowAsset Turnover

Defensive moat: 60% gross margin and 22% operating margin TTM demonstrate pricing power in staples category, insulating earnings through economic cycles

Gross MarginOperating MarginNet Margin

Bear Case

Balance sheet fragility: 9.8x debt/equity with negative tangible book (-4.7B) leaves no margin for error; goodwill impairment would devastate equity

Debt to EquityTangible Book ValueGoodwill

Valuation full: P/E 21.3x at industry median, P/S 3.1x vs median 4.1x offers limited upside given 20B revenue scale and mature growth profile

P/E RatioP/S RatioTotal Revenue

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely to continue as pricing power offsets input cost inflation

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 60% vs industry median 55%
  • Operating margin 22% with room to optimize
  • Asset turnover 1.17x enables capital-light growth
Net margin 14.5% TTM above industry medianROIC 32% vs industry median -32%FCF conversion 86% of operating cash flow

Dividend sustainability at risk if debt refinancing costs rise materially

1-3ylow
  • Interest expense 269M on 8.4B debt
  • Payout ratio 57% of EPS, 59% of FCF
  • Net debt 7.1B vs equity 856M
Debt/equity 9.8x extremely elevatedCurrent debt 1.1B due near-termInterest coverage 16x still comfortable
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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