CO

Coca-Cola Consolidated Inc

COKE
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Coca-Cola Consolidated Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • ROE TTM of 41.9% vs industry median 7.1% - 6x superior capital efficiency from asset-light bottling model[Return on Equity]
  • P/B ratio of 20.4x signals market pricing in franchise value far exceeding tangible book of 692M[Price to Book Ratio]
  • FCF TTM of 598M (8.5% yield on revenue) funds 111M buybacks while maintaining 1.5B cash buffer[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 11% TTMWould signal cost pass-through failure or distribution inefficiency eroding capital efficiency thesis
  • Free Cash Flow: Declines >20% YoYFCF funds buyback program; deterioration limits capital return optionality
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 1.5xSignals balance sheet leverage increasing, reducing financial flexibility

Bull Case

Exceptional capital efficiency: ROIC 18.2% vs industry median 3.1% (6x) with asset turnover 1.29x (2.4x median) drives superior shareholder returns despite commodity business

ROICAsset TurnoverROE

Fortress balance sheet: 1.5B cash, net debt only 256M, and FCF of 598M provides optionality for M&A or aggressive buybacks at 5% dividend payout

Cash and EquivalentsNet DebtFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

Valuation stretched: P/B 20.4x and P/S 1.99x price in perfection for a bottler with limited growth vectors and franchise territory constraints

Price to Book RatioPrice to Sales Ratio

Intangibles risk: Goodwill/intangibles of 944M represent 58% of equity; franchise value impairment would materially impact book value

Goodwill and Other Intangible AssetsCommon Stockholders Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Capital returns to accelerate as net debt of 256M leaves substantial capacity for buybacks

1-3yhigh
  • Debt/equity 1.17x with 1.5B cash cushion
  • FCF of 598M TTM vs 22M dividends paid
  • 111M common stock repurchases already active
Net debt only 256M vs 1.6B equity5yr payout ratio 5% leaves 95% for buybacksOperating cash flow 891M TTM

Margin expansion limited as operating margin 13.1% already near structural ceiling for bottlers

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 39.8% constrained by concentrate costs
  • Distribution-heavy model caps operating leverage
  • Capex 294M TTM for fleet/facilities maintenance
Operating margin at industry median 13.2%Net margin 8.7% vs median 3.8%Asset turnover 1.29x vs median 0.53x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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