CO

Cencora Inc

COR
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Cencora Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-17

Snapshot

  • Working capital -5.6B TTM: AP of 54.7B vs AR of 25.2B means suppliers fund operations - negative cash conversion cycle[Working Capital]
  • ROIC 21.9% TTM vs industry median 3.5% - 6x capital efficiency on thin 1.2% operating margin shows scale leverage[Return on Invested Capital]
  • Goodwill 13.7B is 9x equity (1.5B) - tangible book value -15.9B creates material impairment exposure[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Accounts Payable: Decline >10% QoQSignals supplier terms tightening - would require external financing to replace float
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge >500MWould eliminate equity cushion given 9x goodwill/equity ratio
  • Operating Margin: Falls below 1%At 1.2% TTM, minimal room before operating losses given fixed cost base

Bull Case

Distribution moat: 321B revenue with 4.5x asset turnover TTM generates 3.2B FCF despite 0.5% net margin - scale creates insurmountable efficiency

Asset TurnoverFree Cash FlowTotal Revenue

Float advantage: 54.7B AP vs 25.2B AR TTM means 29B perpetual interest-free financing from suppliers

Accounts PayableAccounts ReceivableWorking Capital

Bear Case

Balance sheet fragility: Debt/equity 5.1x with tangible book -15.9B TTM leaves no buffer for margin compression or impairments

Debt to EquityTangible Book ValueGoodwill

Margin vulnerability: 3.6% gross margin TTM vs industry 15% - any cost pressure flows directly to bottom line

Gross MarginOperating MarginNet Margin

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Cash generation will sustain 3B+ FCF annually despite razor-thin margins

1-3yhigh
  • Negative working capital structure locks in supplier financing
  • Asset turnover 4.5x vs industry 2.2x maximizes capital velocity
  • Capex under 0.2% of revenue keeps FCF conversion near 100%
FCF 3.2B TTM on 321B revenueAP increased 3.8B TTMCapex only 668M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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