CP

The Campbell's Co

CPB
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The Campbell's Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 5.0B is 128% of equity (3.9B) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-5.4B). Acquisition-heavy strategy creates impairment risk.[Goodwill TTM]
  • Debt/equity of 1.85x with 7.2B total debt vs 132M cash. Interest expense (345M TTM) consumes 57% of operating income.[Debt to Equity]
  • Operating margin 13.2% TTM is 2.5x industry median (5.2%), but ROIC of 5.4% barely exceeds cost of capital.[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill TTM: Any impairment charge announced5.0B goodwill exceeds total equity - even 20% writedown would halve book value
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 11%Interest coverage would compress to <3x, threatening dividend sustainability
  • Total Debt TTM: Reduction below 6BSignals deleveraging progress and potential for increased shareholder returns

Bull Case

Defensive staples business with 13.2% operating margin (2.5x industry) generates consistent 705M FCF TTM despite leverage. P/E of 11.7x vs industry 17.8x offers value if margins hold.

Operating Margin TTMPE RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

Dividend yield ~5.1% (1.54/share) with 60% payout ratio is sustainable from FCF. Staples demand is recession-resistant.

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMDividend Payout Ratio Avg 7yr

Bear Case

Negative tangible book (-5.4B) means equity holders own goodwill, not assets. Any impairment directly destroys equity - 4.99B goodwill vs 3.9B equity.

Tangible Book Value TTMGoodwill TTM

4.2x net debt/EBITDA with 345M interest expense limits strategic flexibility. Rising rates or margin compression could stress coverage.

Net Debt TTMInterest Expense TTMEBITDA TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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40%

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Forward Thesis

Deleveraging will be primary value driver as debt service crowds out shareholder returns

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 345M vs FCF 705M leaves minimal flexibility
  • 7.2B debt load from Sovos acquisition needs servicing
  • Dividend payout ratio 60% constrains debt paydown
Net debt 6.7B vs EBITDA 1.6B = 4.2x leverageFCF 705M TTM with 462M dividend commitmentOnly 2M in buybacks TTM - capital constrained
Valuation Context
Caveats

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