CR

Cricut Inc

CRCT
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Cricut Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • FCF of 199.8M TTM on 714M revenue = 28% FCF margin with near-zero debt (0.03 D/E), funding 43M annual dividends comfortably[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • EPS growth 100% YoY vs revenue declining 4% over 5Y - margin expansion masking structural revenue headwinds[EPS Growth 1Y]
  • ROE 19.4% TTM vs industry median 4.7% - 4x capital efficiency advantage despite shrinking top line[ROE TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue growth turns positive YoYWould invalidate secular decline thesis and justify multiple re-rating
  • Inventory: Inventory exceeds 150M or inventory/revenue rises above 22%Signals demand deterioration and potential margin-destroying markdowns
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: FCF margin falls below 20%Threatens dividend sustainability and capital return thesis

Bull Case

Fortress balance sheet: 188M cash, 12.5M debt (0.03 D/E), 254M working capital enables buybacks, dividends, or M&A without dilution

Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsWorking Capital

Operating margin 13.4% TTM vs industry 3% median - 4.4x profitability advantage with room to defend via cost cuts if revenue weakens

Operating Margin TTMOperating Income TTM

Bear Case

Revenue declined 4% over 5Y while industry grew 8% - suggests secular demand erosion in craft/DIY segment, not cyclical weakness

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Inventory 135M = 19% of revenue, elevated vs peers - potential write-down risk if demand continues softening

InventoryTotal Revenue TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Cash generation sustains dividends but revenue decline limits multiple expansion

1-3ymed
  • 28% FCF margin funds 0.20/share dividend at 5x coverage
  • 5Y revenue CAGR of -4% signals mature/declining addressable market
  • P/E 14x below median 21x reflects growth skepticism
FCF 199.8M vs dividends ~43M TTMRevenue 5Y growth -4% vs industry +8%P/E 14x vs industry median 21x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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