CV

Calavo Growers Inc

CVGW
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Calavo Growers Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • EPS 3Y CAGR of 142% despite revenue declining 19% over same period - dramatic cost restructuring driving profitability inflection[EPS Growth 3yr]
  • FCF of 28.6M TTM on minimal capex (1.4M) yields 7.5% FCF yield vs market cap - cash generation exceeds net income by 81%[Free Cash Flow]
  • Debt/equity of 0.12 with 63.8M cash vs 24.2M total debt - net cash position of 39.5M provides strategic flexibility[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue: Return to positive YoY growthRevenue stabilization would validate margin expansion thesis and signal end of structural decline
  • Gross Margin: Decline below 8%Thin 9.8% margin leaves minimal room for commodity cost increases before operating losses
  • EPS Growth 1yr: Second consecutive quarter of YoY declineWould indicate turnaround benefits exhausted and cost cuts can't offset revenue pressure

Bull Case

Turnaround story with EPS growth 142% 3Y while revenue shrinks - management executing cost discipline. P/S of 0.55x vs median 0.28x justified by superior margins.

EPS Growth 3yrOperating MarginFree Cash Flow

Fortress balance sheet (net cash 39.5M, debt/equity 0.12) enables dividend sustainability (0.80/share, 3.5% yield) plus opportunistic M&A in fragmented produce industry.

Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsDividends Paid Per Share

Bear Case

Revenue declined 19% over 3Y and 8% over 5Y - structural volume/pricing headwinds in avocado market may not reverse. Gross margin 9.8% leaves thin buffer.

Total Revenue 3yr GrowthTotal Revenue 5yr GrowthGross Margin

P/E of 22.8x vs industry median 26.8x looks fair, but EPS down 25% YoY signals turnaround may be stalling. Small cap (384M) limits institutional interest.

PE RatioEPS Growth 1yrMarket Cap

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely to continue as restructuring benefits fully flow through on stabilizing revenue

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 3.5% TTM vs industry median 1.2%
  • Gross profit down 9% vs revenue down 19% 3Y
  • Minimal capex needs (0.2% of revenue)
Operating margin 3.5% TTMCapex only 1.4M TTMFCF/Net Income ratio of 1.8x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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