DE

Deere & Co

DE
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Deere & Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 20% vs industry median 6.7% - 3x advantage from pricing power and precision ag tech moat[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Debt/equity 2.66x with 66.9B total debt - captive financing arm inflates leverage but generates interest spread income[Debt to Equity]
  • R&D 2.3B TTM (5.2% of revenue) funds autonomous/AI farming tech - 4x industry median R&D spend[Research and Development TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 15%Signals pricing power erosion or ag cycle downturn - margin compression precedes earnings cuts
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 3BWould pressure dividend coverage and R&D investment capacity
  • Interest Expense TTM: Rises above 4BFinancing arm profitability squeeze if funding costs rise faster than loan yields

Bull Case

Dominant ag equipment franchise with 20% operating margins and 22% ROE TTM - captive financing creates customer stickiness while generating spread income on 67B loan book

Operating Margin TTMROE TTMTotal Debt

FCF of 4.1B TTM funds 6.33 dividend (2.6% yield) and buybacks while investing 2.3B in autonomous/precision ag tech

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTMResearch and Development TTM

Bear Case

Farm income cyclicality risk - ag commodity prices declining could compress equipment demand and financing quality on 67B loan book

Total DebtInterest Expense TTMTotal Revenue TTM

P/E 24.6x at industry median despite cyclical peak margins - limited upside if ag cycle turns down

PE RatioOperating Margin TTMNet Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Precision ag adoption accelerates FCF margins to 12-15% as software attach rates rise

1-3ymed
  • See & Spray, autonomous tractors drive recurring revenue
  • Dealer network lock-in creates switching costs
  • Farm labor shortage forces automation adoption
FCF margin 9.4% TTM (4.1B) with room to expandR&D 2.3B sustains tech leadershipOperating margin 3x peers indicates pricing power

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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