DE

Dell Technologies Inc

DELL
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Dell Technologies Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-2.8B) with negative working capital (-9.4B) - gets paid 27.5B in payables before delivering, funding operations with supplier float.[Working Capital]
  • Asset turnover 1.18x vs industry median 0.58x - 2x capital efficiency drives 5.6% ROA despite thin 4.8% net margin TTM.[Asset Turnover TTM]
  • Goodwill 19.3B represents 700% of negative equity - any impairment directly amplifies already negative book value.[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Accounts Payable: Decline >15% from 27.5BSupplier financing model unwinding would force Dell to fund working capital from debt/equity
  • Interest Expense TTM: Rise above 1.8B (>25% increase)Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses already thin 4.8% net margin
  • Gross Margin TTM: Fall below 19%AI server pricing competition eroding hardware economics

Bull Case

Negative working capital (-9.4B) means Dell collects 27.5B from suppliers before paying - revenue growth directly converts to cash without capital needs.

Working CapitalAccounts PayableFree Cash Flow TTM

P/E 21.9x vs industry median 32.4x with 2x asset turnover - valuation discount despite superior capital efficiency.

PE RatioAsset Turnover TTMPS Ratio

Bear Case

Total debt 28.7B at 1.4B annual interest with negative equity - no book value cushion if hardware demand cycles down.

Total DebtInterest Expense TTMTotal Equity

Gross margin 21.1% vs industry median 41.6% - commodity hardware business vulnerable to pricing pressure in AI server competition.

Gross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

AI server demand to drive revenue acceleration while negative working capital amplifies FCF conversion.

1-3ymed
  • Enterprise AI infrastructure refresh cycle
  • Supplier financing model scales with revenue
  • 4.9B FCF TTM on 101B revenue = 4.8% yield
FCF 4.9B TTM vs industry median 8.9MAP 27.5B exceeds AR 15B + inventory 7.2BOperating margin 6.7% vs median 2.4%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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