DG

Dollar General Corp

DG
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Dollar General Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • EPS declined -18.1% (3Y CAGR) and -11.1% (5Y CAGR) despite 4.6% revenue growth TTM - margin compression accelerating[EPS Growth 3Y]
  • Debt/equity at 2.02x with 16.5B total debt vs 8.2B equity; interest expense 244M TTM consuming 15% of operating income[Debt to Equity]
  • P/E of 21.5x vs industry median 29.2x while FCF yield 8.5% (2.3B FCF / 27.5B market cap) - discount for deterioration[PE Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 4.0% or recovers above 5.5%Currently 4.5% at industry median; direction signals turnaround success or further deterioration
  • ROIC TTM: Rises above 7% (industry median) or falls below 4%At 5.1% TTM, capital allocation destroying value; improvement needed to justify expansion
  • Debt to Equity: Exceeds 2.5x or debt reduction acceleratesAt 2.0x with 244M interest expense; leverage limits strategic flexibility

Bull Case

Trading at 0.65x P/S (industry median 1.28x) and 21.5x P/E (median 29.2x) with 2.3B FCF TTM - valuation embeds significant pessimism already priced in

PS RatioPE RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

Revenue 42.1B growing 4.6% TTM vs industry median 4.1% with gross margin 30.4% stable - core business intact despite margin pressure

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

EPS declining -11% (5Y) and -18% (3Y) while debt/equity at 2.0x creates limited flexibility; ROIC 5.1% TTM below cost of capital

EPS Growth 5YDebt to EquityROIC TTM

Goodwill 4.3B represents 53% of equity; tangible book value only 2.6B vs 27.5B market cap (10.4x P/TBV) - asset quality risk

GoodwillTangible Book ValuePB Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Margin recovery unlikely without structural cost reset; operating margin compressed to 4.5% TTM

1-3ymed
  • Operating expense 10.9B TTM growing faster than revenue
  • Labor and shrink headwinds persist industry-wide
  • Store count expansion diluting per-store economics
Operating margin 4.5% TTM at industry median 4.5%EPS 5.79 TTM down from higher base (5Y CAGR -11%)Capex 1.3B TTM maintaining expansion pace

Defensive positioning may attract flows if consumer weakens further

3-12mlow
  • Value retail gains share in recessions
  • 42.1B revenue base provides scale advantage
  • 2.4% dividend yield with 28% payout ratio
Revenue growth 4.6% TTM positive vs industry -1.5%Dividend payout ratio 28% (5Y avg) sustainableP/S 0.65x vs industry median 1.28x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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