DI

The Walt Disney Co

DIS
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The Walt Disney Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 73.3B is 67% of equity (109.9B) - material impairment risk if streaming or parks underperform expectations.[Goodwill TTM]
  • EPS 5Y CAGR of 86% vs industry median 15% - turnaround from pandemic losses now fully reflected in earnings power.[EPS Growth 5yr TTM]
  • Operating margin 14.6% is 4x industry median (3.7%) - scale advantages in content amortization and parks operations.[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 8B annuallyWould signal streaming losses widening or parks capex exceeding guidance
  • Goodwill TTM: Any impairment charge >5BFox acquisition goodwill at risk if linear TV decline accelerates
  • Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 12%Would indicate content cost inflation outpacing revenue growth

Bull Case

Irreplaceable IP portfolio (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, ESPN) creates pricing power across parks, streaming, and licensing with 14.6% operating margins vs 3.7% industry.

Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

Negative working capital (-9.9B) means customers prepay via park tickets and subscriptions - self-funding growth model.

Working Capital TTMCash Flow TTM

Bear Case

44.9B total debt with 1.8B interest expense (0.41 D/E) limits flexibility; net debt 36.3B exceeds 1.9x EBITDA.

Total Debt TTMInterest Expense TTMDebt to Equity

P/B of 7.1x vs tangible book of only 27.3B - paying 7x for intangibles that could face write-downs.

PB Ratio TTMTangible Book Value TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

FCF expansion to 12-14B likely as streaming losses reverse and parks capex normalizes

1-3ymed
  • Streaming segment approaching profitability inflection
  • Parks capex cycle peaking at 8B annually
  • Content cost discipline improving
FCF TTM 10.1B on 94.4B revenue (10.7% yield)Capex 8B vs 18.1B operating cash flowNet margin 13.1% recovering toward pre-pandemic levels
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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