DR

Darden Restaurants Inc

DRI
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Darden Restaurants Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-19

Snapshot

  • ROE of 50.4% TTM vs industry median 7.7% - 6.5x advantage driven by high leverage (2.8x D/E) and efficient capital deployment[Return on Equity]
  • Working capital -1.4B TTM with negative tangible book value (-779M) - asset-light model funded by suppliers/customers[Working Capital]
  • 5Y EPS growth 47% vs industry median 15% while maintaining 5.7 dividend/share (60% payout on TTM EPS)[EPS Growth 5 Year]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 10% TTMMargin compression signals pricing power erosion or cost inflation - threatens FCF thesis
  • Debt to Equity: Exceeds 3.5xFurther leverage increases refinancing risk and limits capital return flexibility
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 800M TTMWould force choice between dividend maintenance and debt reduction

Bull Case

Scale advantage: 12.4B revenue (18x industry median) drives 11.8% operating margin vs 5.1% median - cost leverage compounds

Operating MarginTotal RevenueROIC

Capital efficiency: 50% ROE and 14% ROIC with asset turnover 1.03x generates excess cash for buybacks/dividends

ROEROICFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

Leverage risk: 2.8x D/E with 6.2B debt vs 2.2B equity - rising rates or revenue decline pressures coverage

Debt to EquityTotal DebtNet Debt

Valuation full: P/E 19.8x at industry median, P/S 1.8x (2x median) - limited multiple expansion upside

PE RatioPS Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation to sustain 6%+ dividend yield plus debt reduction over next 2 years

1-3ymed
  • 1.1B FCF TTM on 6.2B total debt
  • Operating margin 11.8% stable vs volatile peers
  • Capex 700M/yr manageable at 5.7% of revenue
FCF 1.1B TTM, dividend 5.7/share = ~670M payoutROIC 13.9% exceeds industry median 3%Cash flow 1.8B TTM covers interest + capex
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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