EC

Eagle Point Credit Co Inc

ECC
—
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Eagle Point Credit Co Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Revenue down 51% YoY while funding via $367M stock issuance TTM - dilution-funded model with declining core income[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • FCF of -301M TTM despite 66% net margin - cash consumed by investment losses (-298M unrealized) not operations[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Interest income 45.7M vs interest expense 23.5M - positive carry but expense is 76% of total revenue[Interest Expense TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gain/Loss on Investment Securities TTM: Losses exceed -350M or flip to gains — Unrealized marks drive FCF; stabilization signals NAV floor
  • Issuance of Capital Stock TTM: Drops below 200M or exceeds 500M — Dilution pace determines per-share value trajectory
  • Interest Income: Falls below interest expense (23.5M) — Negative carry would eliminate core earnings engine

Bull Case

Net margin 66% TTM shows core CLO equity income remains profitable when marks stabilize; low debt/equity 0.30 provides balance sheet flexibility

Net Margin TTMDebt to Equity

Interest income 45.7M exceeds interest expense 23.5M - positive 22M net interest spread funds distributions

Interest IncomeInterest Expense TTM

Bear Case

Continuous dilution: 367M stock issuance TTM on 924M equity base = 40% dilution rate annually to fund negative FCF

Issuance of Capital Stock TTMCommon Stockholders Equity

ROE 2.3% TTM vs industry median 8.5% - capital destruction despite high-yield CLO equity mandate

ROE TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Equity dilution will accelerate as CLO portfolio marks deteriorate in credit cycle

1-3ymed
  • 298M unrealized investment losses TTM
  • 367M new stock issuance to fund operations
  • Revenue halved while capital needs persist
Net common stock issuance 220M TTMNet preferred issuance 144M TTMFCF -301M requires external funding
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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