ED

Educational Development Corp

EDUC

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Educational Development Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Current debt of 30M equals 2.6x TTM revenue (29.4M) with interest expense consuming 74% of gross profit - liquidity crisis imminent[Current Debt]
  • Revenue down 38% over 3Y and 29% YoY while operating at -20% margin - structural decline, not cyclical[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
  • Trading at 0.30x book value despite positive FCF of 3.8M TTM - market pricing bankruptcy risk[P/B Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Current Debt: Any refinancing announcement or covenant waiver30M due now vs 0.75M cash - survival depends on lender action
  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue stabilizes above 7MRevenue decline must stop before any turnaround thesis viable
  • Inventory: Reduction below 20M with cash conversion23.6M inventory is only liquid asset to service debt

Bull Case

Gross margin 60% TTM (vs industry median 15%) proves underlying business model viable if revenue stabilizes

Gross Margin TTMGross Profit TTM

P/B of 0.30x with 38M tangible book and positive 3.8M FCF offers deep value if debt restructured

P/B RatioTangible Book ValueFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

30M current debt with 0.75M cash and -6M operating income = insolvency math without rescue financing

Current DebtCash and EquivalentsOperating Income TTM

Revenue collapsed 40% over 5Y with no signs of stabilization - secular decline in core market

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Debt refinancing or equity raise required within 12 months to avoid default

3-12mhigh
  • 30M current debt vs 0.75M cash
  • Interest expense exceeds operating income by 8M
  • No long-term debt capacity (only 93K LT debt)
Debt/Equity 0.81 with 30M due nowOperating loss of -6M TTMWorking capital 10.9M tied in inventory

Valuation Context

Caveats

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