EM

EMCOR Group Inc

EME
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EMCOR Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • ROIC of 32.9% TTM vs industry median 15.9% - capital efficiency 2x peers with minimal debt (0.13 D/E)[Return on Invested Capital]
  • EPS 5Y CAGR 42.5% vs industry median 16.4% - 2.6x faster earnings growth on 15% revenue CAGR[EPS Growth 5Y]
  • FCF of 1.1B TTM (7.1% yield on 28B market cap) with capex under 1% of revenue - asset-light model[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 8% TTMSignals pricing pressure or labor cost inflation eroding competitive advantage
  • Accounts Receivable: Exceeds 100 days sales outstandingWould indicate customer payment stress or revenue quality deterioration
  • Total Revenue 3Y Growth: Declines below 10% CAGRInfrastructure spending slowdown would invalidate growth thesis

Bull Case

Capital-light compounder: 33% ROIC with 0.13 D/E generates 1.1B FCF annually for buybacks/M&A without dilution or leverage

Return on Invested CapitalDebt to EquityFree Cash Flow

Infrastructure tailwinds: 15% 3Y revenue CAGR (3x industry median) positions EME for data center, grid modernization spend

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthOperating Income

Bear Case

Valuation stretched: P/B 30.7x vs book of 74/share reflects perfection; P/E 25x at cycle peak leaves no margin for error

Price to Book RatioPrice to Earnings Ratio

A/R concentration risk: 4.1B receivables (48% of assets) exposes EME to customer credit deterioration in downturn

Accounts ReceivableTotal Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely to continue as mix shifts toward higher-value electrical/mechanical services

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 9.4% TTM expanding faster than revenue
  • Asset turnover 2.0x enables operating leverage
  • Minimal capex needs (0.6% of revenue)
Net margin 7.0% vs industry median 7.0% with 2x revenue growthFCF conversion 92% of operating cash flow TTMDebt paydown of 251M while growing earnings
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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