EQ

Equity Residential

EQR
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Equity Residential AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • EPS declined 32% over 3Y while paying out 3x earnings in dividends (5Y avg payout ratio 301%) - unsustainable without asset sales[EPS Growth 3Y / Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 5Y]
  • Net margin 37.6% TTM vs industry median 14.7% - 2.6x advantage from premium urban apartment portfolio[Net Margin TTM]
  • Debt/equity 0.79 with 8.7B total debt vs 93M cash - interest expense 308M TTM consumes 20% of EBIT[Debt to Equity / Total Debt]

Watch Triggers

  • EPS TTM: Falls below $1.00 or rises above $1.80Current $1.32 EPS cannot support $2.75 dividend; inflection determines payout sustainability
  • Gain on Sale of Security: Declines below $50M annually143M asset sale gains currently subsidizing dividend; depletion signals cut risk
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds $350MCurrently 308M; refinancing 846M current debt at higher rates compresses margins

Bull Case

Premium urban apartment REIT with 37.6% net margin (2.6x industry) and 1.3B FCF TTM provides durable cash generation from irreplaceable coastal assets

Net Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

ROE 10.6% and ROIC 5.9% both exceed industry medians (4.5% and 1.6%) despite high-rate environment headwinds

ROE TTMROIC TTM

Bear Case

P/E 46x vs industry median 31x (50% premium) with declining EPS (-32% 3Y) suggests valuation assumes recovery not yet visible

PE RatioEPS Growth 3Y

8.7B debt (79% of equity) with only 93M cash creates refinancing risk as 846M current debt matures

Total DebtCurrent DebtCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk without continued asset dispositions or EPS recovery

1-3yhigh
  • 301% 5Y avg payout ratio mathematically unsustainable
  • 142M gain on security sales masks operating weakness
  • EPS -32% 3Y trend continuing
Dividend $2.75/share vs EPS $1.32 TTMGain on sale of security 143M TTMEPS Growth 3Y: -32.3%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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