ES

Essex Property Trust Inc

ESS
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Essex Property Trust Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • ROE of 15.3% TTM vs industry median 4.6% - 3.3x advantage from West Coast apartment concentration and operational efficiency[Return on Equity]
  • FCF of 918.9M TTM (49% of revenue) with minimal capex (-139.7M) funds 10.16/share dividend at 1.19x debt/equity[Free Cash Flow]
  • P/E of 42.3x vs industry median 30.5x - 39% premium despite similar growth profile signals full valuation[Price to Earnings Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 28%Would signal pricing power erosion or cost inflation outpacing rent growth
  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 300M annuallyRefinancing 6.7B debt at higher rates compresses dividend coverage
  • Free Cash Flow: Drops below 800M TTMThreatens 654M annual dividend sustainability without asset sales

Bull Case

Superior capital efficiency: ROIC 7.0% vs median 1.6% (4.3x) with 45.5% net margin generates 846.5M net income on 1.86B revenue

ROICNet MarginNet Income

Defensive cash generation: 918.9M FCF covers 654M dividend (1.4x) with 6.6B net debt manageable at 3.7x EBITDA

Free Cash FlowDividends Paid Per ShareNet Debt

Bear Case

Valuation stretched: P/E 42.3x and P/S 8.9x both exceed industry medians (30.5x, 4.4x) by 39% and 103% respectively

P/E RatioP/S Ratio

Interest rate sensitivity: 253.9M interest expense (14% of revenue) on 6.7B debt with 245M current portion due

Interest ExpenseTotal DebtCurrent Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

West Coast supply constraints and tech employment recovery should drive 3-5% NOI growth through 2028

1-3ymed
  • California NIMBY regulations limit new supply
  • Tech sector hiring stabilization in core markets
  • Operating margin 31% enables pricing power
Operating margin 31.1% TTM vs median 17.8%Net margin 45.5% TTM vs median 15.4%Revenue 1.86B with 68% gross margin
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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