FC

Freeport-McMoRan Inc

FCX
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Freeport-McMoRan Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 26.7% TTM vs industry median 0% - profitable while peers lose money. EBITDA 9.5B on 26B revenue.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Capex 4.7B TTM (18% of revenue) consumes 74% of operating cash flow 6.4B, leaving FCF of only 1.6B (6.2% margin).[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • PPE of 40.3B is 71% of total assets - capital-intensive model with 0.46x asset turnover, below industry median 0.18x.[PP&E]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1B or capex exceeds 5.5BDividend sustainability requires FCF; current 1.6B barely covers 866M payout
  • Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 20%Signals copper price weakness or cost inflation eroding competitive advantage
  • Net Debt: Exceeds 1x EBITDA (currently 0.5x)Would indicate balance sheet stress from capex or commodity downturn

Bull Case

Dominant scale: 26B revenue is 119x industry median with 26.7% operating margin while median peer is breakeven. Size enables cost advantages.

Total Revenue TTMOperating Margin TTMEBITDA TTM

Balance sheet supports growth: 0.50x debt/equity, 4.3B cash, net debt only 5B vs 9.5B EBITDA (0.5x leverage).

Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsNet Debt

Bear Case

FCF yield only 2.5% (1.6B FCF / 64.9B market cap) due to 4.7B capex. Dividend 0.60/share costs 866M, leaving minimal buffer.

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Valuation stretched: P/E 31.6x vs industry 27.7x, P/B 3.5x. Net margin only 8% TTM despite high operating margin - tax/interest drag.

PE RatioPB RatioNet Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Copper demand from electrification will drive revenue growth as FCX holds tier-1 assets

1-3ymed
  • EV/grid buildout requires 2-3x more copper than ICE vehicles
  • Grasberg underground ramp-up increasing production capacity
  • Limited new copper supply globally due to permitting delays
Revenue 26B TTM, 16x industry median 218MOperating income 6.9B vs median 2.2MInvested capital 28B in productive assets
Valuation Context
Caveats

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