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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc

FDMT
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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-15

Snapshot

  • Cash burn of 185M FCF TTM vs 48.6M cash on hand = ~3 months runway without financing. Critical funding need imminent.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • R&D spend of 181M TTM is 79% of total opex (230M) - pure clinical-stage bet with no commercial revenue base.[Research and Development TTM]
  • P/S of 5,122x on 120K revenue reflects option value only. Trading at 1.67x book (369M equity) provides floor reference.[P/S Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 30M or financing announcedFinancing terms will determine 30-50% dilution impact on equity value
  • Research and Development TTM: Drops >20% from 181MR&D cuts signal pipeline prioritization or distress - affects platform value
  • Total Revenue TTM: Increases above 10MAny material revenue signals partnership milestone or licensing deal

Bull Case

369M tangible book value vs 615M market cap = 60% asset backing. Debt/equity of 0.06 means clean balance sheet for financing.

Tangible Book ValueDebt to Equity

181M R&D investment with 4D proprietary AAV platform could attract strategic acquirer at premium to current 1.67x book.

Research and Development TTMP/B Ratio

Bear Case

Sub-3-month cash runway with no recent financing = imminent dilutive raise likely at distressed terms given biotech market.

Cash and EquivalentsFree Cash Flow TTM

Revenue of 120K (essentially zero) with -209M net loss TTM means 100% reliance on capital markets for survival.

Total Revenue TTMNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Binary outcome: either successful financing/partnership in 3-6 months or severe dilution/distress

3-12mhigh
  • 48.6M cash vs 185M annual burn = <3 months runway
  • No capital stock issuance in recent period signals pending raise
  • Gene therapy sector consolidation creates M&A optionality
End Cash Position: 48.6MFCF TTM: -185MIssuance of Capital Stock: 0
Valuation Context
Caveats

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