GA

Gladstone Investment Corp

GAIN
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Gladstone Investment Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • EPS 3Y CAGR of 103% vs industry median 7% driven by net income of 92.8M TTM exceeding revenue of 85.1M (realized gains)[EPS Growth 3Y]
  • FCF TTM is -170M due to BDC model deploying capital into investments; cash flow negative by design, not distress[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • P/B of 0.99 trading at tangible book value (535.8M) while generating 18.7% ROE TTM vs industry median 8.5%[P/B Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Investment Income: Falls below dividend payments — Would signal dividend cut risk as gains cannot sustain distributions long-term
  • Debt to Equity: Exceeds 1.2x — BDC regulatory limits cap leverage; approaching ceiling restricts growth
  • NAV per Share: Declines below $13 — Currently $13.94 - erosion signals portfolio credit deterioration

Bull Case

P/E of 5.5x vs industry 12.4x with ROE of 18.7% (2.2x industry median) - significant discount for above-average returns

P/E RatioROE TTMP/B Ratio

Revenue 3Y CAGR 126% vs industry 7% with minimal G&A (1.4M) - efficient external management structure

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthG&A Expense

Bear Case

Negative FCF (-170M TTM) requires continuous equity issuance (31.6M TTM) diluting shareholders to fund investments

Free Cash Flow TTMNet Common Stock Issuance

Debt/equity 1.04x with 33.5M interest expense consumes 39% of revenue - rate sensitivity is material

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk if realized gains normalize - 96c/share TTM vs 2.51 EPS relies on lumpy exits

1-3ymed
  • Dividend payout 38% of EPS but gains are non-recurring
  • Interest expense 33.5M TTM on 555M debt
  • Debt/equity 1.04x limits new deployment capacity
Gain on sale -29.9M TTM (negative = realized)Net income 92.8M exceeds operating revenueDividend paid 9.3M vs 31.6M equity issuance
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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