GA

Gap Inc

GAP
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Gap Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • ROE of 25.1% TTM vs industry median 8.8% - 2.9x advantage despite 1.5x debt/equity leverage[ROE]
  • 5Y revenue CAGR of -0.3% vs industry median +5.3% - structural decline while peers grow[Total Revenue 5Y Growth]
  • FCF of 779M TTM (5.1% yield on 10.2B market cap) funds 0.65 dividend despite flat revenue[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue: Two consecutive quarters of YoY decline >3%Confirms structural decline acceleration requiring multiple re-rating
  • Gross Margin: Falls below 38% (from 41% TTM)Signals promotional intensity eroding pricing power
  • Inventory: Rises >15% YoY while revenue flatWorking capital tailwind reverses, markdown risk increases

Bull Case

Operating margin 7.5% TTM is 1.9x industry median 4% with room to expand via cost discipline - 1.1B operating income on declining SG&A

Operating MarginOperating Income

P/E of 12x vs industry 13.7x with 25% ROE and 5% FCF yield offers value if margins hold

P/E RatioROEFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

Revenue declining -0.3% CAGR over 5Y while industry grows +5.3% - secular share loss to fast fashion and e-commerce competitors

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue

Debt/equity 1.5x with 5.5B total debt vs 3.6B equity - 88M interest expense consumes 7.5% of operating income

Debt to EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion will stall as inventory reduction tailwind (-172M) normalizes

1-3ymed
  • Inventory declined 172M boosting near-term cash flow
  • Operating margin 7.5% vs 4% median already stretched
  • No revenue growth engine to drive operating leverage
5Y revenue CAGR -0.3% vs industry +5.3%Working capital change -123M TTMGross margin 41% in line with 40% median
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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