GE

Genesis Energy LP

GEL
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Genesis Energy LP AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-23

Snapshot

  • Debt/Equity of 12.2x with 3.1B debt vs 253M equity; interest expense (281M TTM) exceeds operating income (268M TTM)[Debt to Equity]
  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-127M) - goodwill (302M) exceeds total equity (253M), masking true leverage[Tangible Book Value]
  • Gross profit up 48% YoY while revenue down 17% over 3Y - margin recovery amid structural revenue decline[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds EBITDA (currently 281M vs 512M)Would signal imminent liquidity crisis and potential covenant breach
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive (currently -68M)Positive FCF would indicate self-funding capability without asset sales
  • Total Debt: Reduction below 2.5B (currently 3.1B)Meaningful deleveraging would reduce equity wipeout risk

Bull Case

Operating margin 9.3% TTM near industry median (27%) with 48% gross profit growth signals operational turnaround potential if debt restructured

Operating Margin TTMGross Profit 1Y Growth

P/S ratio 0.67x vs industry median 2.6x - deep discount if capital structure stabilizes

P/S RatioEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Capital structure unsustainable: 12.2x D/E, negative tangible equity, interest exceeds operating income - equity wipeout risk in downturn

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTMTangible Book Value

Revenue declined 17% over 3Y and 1.4% over 5Y - secular decline in core business limits deleveraging path

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal Revenue 5Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Debt refinancing or asset sales required within 1-3Y as interest burden consumes all operating income

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 281M vs operating income 268M TTM
  • Net loss of 510M TTM despite positive EBITDA
  • Cash position only 5M with negative FCF
Interest expense/EBIT ratio >1.0x TTMFCF negative 68M TTMCash 5M vs 3.1B debt
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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