GFL Environmental Inc
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Net income of 3.6B TTM inflated by 5.8B sale of business - core pretax income only 10.7M, masking weak underlying profitability[Sale of Business]
- Goodwill of 6.8B is 90% of equity (7.6B) - tangible book value negative at -898M, material impairment risk[Goodwill]
- Interest expense of 494.5M TTM consumes 91% of operating income (545.4M) - minimal cushion for debt service[Interest Expense]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense: Exceeds operating income — Currently at 91% coverage - any margin compression breaks debt service capacity
- Goodwill: Impairment charge announced — 6.8B goodwill vs 7.6B equity means any write-down devastates book value
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 200M or turns negative — Already thin at 225M; decline signals capex or debt pressures intensifying
Bull Case
Gross profit grew 24.7% YoY despite flat revenue, showing pricing power and cost discipline in defensive waste sector
ROIC of 22.4% TTM vastly exceeds industry median (-8.2%), demonstrating capital efficiency even with heavy asset base
Bear Case
Negative tangible book value (-898M) and 90% goodwill/equity ratio creates binary impairment risk if acquisitions underperform
P/E of 80x on inflated earnings; normalized for divestiture, valuation likely 10x+ higher on core earnings
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
FCF will remain constrained by 1.2B annual capex needs despite 1.4B operating cash flow
- Capital-intensive waste infrastructure requires ongoing investment
- Debt service of 494M leaves 225M FCF after capex
- 7.9B total debt limits financial flexibility
Reported earnings will normalize sharply lower as divestiture gains roll off
- 5.8B sale of business was one-time event
- Core pretax income of 10.7M reveals true earnings power
- P/E of 80x based on inflated net income
Public Strategies Rankings
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GFL Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$15.76B | — | ||
$23.44B | — | ||
79 | — | ||
$8.22B | +6.0% | — | |
$0.54 | — | ||
6.63% | +2.2% | — | |
43.9% | +51.5% | — | |
$225.7M | -16.1% | — | |
0.50 | +58.5% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
GFL Dividend History
2026
$0.01542025
$0.06022024
$0.05502023
$0.05102022
$0.04702021
$0.04302020
$0.0300GFL Stock Splits
GFL SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/07/25 | 09/30/25 | 6-K | |
11/05/25 | 09/30/25 | 6-K | |
08/01/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
07/30/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
05/02/25 | 03/31/25 | 6-K | |
04/30/25 | 03/31/25 | 6-K | |
02/27/25 | 12/31/24 | 40-F | |
11/08/24 | 09/30/24 | 6-K | |
07/31/24 | 06/30/24 | 6-K | |
05/01/24 | 03/31/24 | 6-K | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 40-F | |
11/03/23 | 09/30/23 | 6-K | |
07/28/23 | 06/30/23 | 6-K | |
04/28/23 | 03/31/23 | 6-K | |
02/23/23 | 12/31/22 | 40-F | |
11/03/22 | 09/30/22 | 6-K | |
07/27/22 | 06/30/22 | 6-K | |
05/05/22 | 03/31/22 | 6-K | |
02/10/22 | 12/31/21 | 40-F | |
11/04/21 | 09/30/21 | 6-K | |
07/29/21 | 06/30/21 | 6-K | |
05/06/21 | 03/31/21 | 6-K | |
02/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 20-F | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | 6-K | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 6-K | |
05/12/20 | 03/31/20 | 6-K | |
03/04/20 | 12/31/19 | 424B4 | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/19 | 6-K | |
08/22/19 | 06/30/19 | F-1/A | |
07/19/19 | 03/31/19 | F-1 | |
07/19/19 | 03/31/18 | F-1 |