GI

General Mills Inc

GIS
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General Mills Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 15.7B is 165% of equity (9.5B) with tangible book value negative at -13.2B - material impairment risk if brands underperform[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin TTM 16.4% is 3.2x industry median (5.2%) - structural pricing power in staples category[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 2.1B TTM covers 2.41 dividend (1.3B) 1.6x while debt/equity at 1.52 limits flexibility[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 14%Margin compression below 14% would signal pricing power erosion and threaten dividend coverage
  • Goodwill: Any impairment chargeWith goodwill at 165% of equity, even 10% impairment wipes 16% of book value
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1.5BBelow 1.5B FCF would not cover dividend (1.3B) with adequate safety margin

Bull Case

ROE of 31.1% vs industry median 8.6% (3.6x) with ROIC 12.5% vs 5% median demonstrates capital efficiency despite leverage

ROE TTMROIC TTM

P/E of 12.1x vs industry 17.8x median offers 32% discount for a company with 3x better margins

P/E RatioOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Goodwill 165% of equity with negative tangible book (-13.2B) means any brand impairment directly erodes equity base

GoodwillTangible Book Value

Revenue 19.2B flat while 1.05B gain on sale inflated earnings - core growth unclear post-divestiture

Total Revenue TTMGain on Sale of Business

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Portfolio reshaping via 1.8B divestiture signals margin focus over growth

1-3ymed
  • Gain on sale of 1.05B boosted net income TTM
  • Net debt paydown of 655M improving leverage
  • Operating margin 3x industry sustains premium
Sale of business: 1.8B TTMNet issuance payments: -655MOperating margin: 16.4% vs 5.2% median

Dividend sustainability at risk if FCF margin compresses below 10%

1-3ylow
  • Current FCF margin 10.9% with 2.41/share payout
  • Debt of 14.4B at 1.52x equity constrains buybacks
  • Working capital deficit of -2.7B limits cushion
FCF: 2.1B on 19.2B revenueDividends paid: ~1.3B annuallyWorking capital: -2.7B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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