GL

Globe Life Inc

GL
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Globe Life Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • EPS growth 3Y of 34.6% vs industry median 8.7% - 4x outperformance driven by margin expansion, not revenue (4.8% 5Y rev growth)[EPS Growth 3Y]
  • ROIC TTM 14.6% vs industry median 6.3% - 2.3x capital efficiency advantage in low-turnover insurance model[ROIC TTM]
  • FCF TTM 1.2B on 5.9B revenue (21% FCF margin) with minimal capex (137M) - cash machine funding buybacks[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Growth accelerates above 6%Would signal organic growth returning, validating premium multiple expansion
  • Net Margin TTM: Falls below 17%Margin compression would break EPS growth thesis given flat revenue
  • Common Stock Payments: Buybacks decline below 150M annuallyReduced buybacks would slow EPS compounding - key growth driver

Bull Case

Capital-light compounder: 22% ROE, 14.6% ROIC, 21% FCF margin with sub-10% payout enables aggressive buybacks that compound EPS at 2-3x revenue growth

ROE TTMROIC TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDividend Payout Ratio

Valuation disconnect: P/E 9.6x vs industry 13.8x despite superior profitability (net margin 19.4% vs industry 10.9%) and growth (EPS 3Y 34.6% vs 8.7%)

PE RatioNet Margin TTMEPS Growth 3Y

Bear Case

Revenue stagnation: 4.8% 5Y CAGR below industry 8.3% - EPS growth entirely margin/buyback driven, not organic expansion. Finite runway.

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Interest expense 139M TTM (10% of EBIT) with 2.7B total debt - rising rates compress margins on insurance float economics

Interest Expense TTMTotal DebtEBIT TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

EPS growth to sustain 15-20% annually as buybacks compound on low payout ratio

1-3ymed
  • 10% dividend payout ratio leaves 90% for buybacks/reinvestment
  • 174M TTM buybacks reducing share count
  • 21% FCF margin funds capital return without leverage
Payout ratio 9.7% (5Y avg) vs industry 23.8%Debt/equity 0.48 - room for leverage if neededFCF 1.2B vs dividends 22M
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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