GL

Global E Online Ltd

GLBE

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Global E Online Ltd AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • FCF of 193M TTM (22% margin) vs capex of only 3M - asset-light model converts 98% of operating cash to free cash[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Goodwill of 375M is 40% of equity - acquisition-driven growth creates impairment risk if cross-border e-commerce slows[Goodwill]
  • Revenue 5Y CAGR 46% vs industry median 10% - 4.6x faster growth but P/S of 7.8x vs median 1.4x prices in perfection[Total Revenue 5 Year Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue 1 Year Growth: Falls below 20%990x P/E requires sustained hyper-growth; deceleration triggers multiple compression
  • Operating Margin TTM: Rises above 5%Confirms operating leverage thesis and path to sustainable profitability
  • Goodwill: Increases >50% of equitySignals continued M&A dependency; raises impairment risk in downturn

Bull Case

Asset-light FCF machine: 193M FCF TTM on 3M capex with 251M cash and near-zero debt enables reinvestment or M&A without dilution

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMDebt to Equity

Hyper-growth at scale: 25% 1Y and 46% 5Y revenue CAGR in cross-border e-commerce with 45% gross margins - rare combination

Total Revenue 1 Year GrowthTotal Revenue 5 Year GrowthGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

P/E of 990x and P/S of 7.8x (5.7x industry median) prices in years of flawless execution - any growth deceleration crushes multiple

PE RatioPS Ratio

Net margin 0.8% TTM despite 45% gross margin - 386M opex (43% of revenue) must scale or profitability thesis fails

Net Margin TTMOperating Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Operating leverage to drive margin expansion as R&D (13% of revenue) scales against 25%+ revenue growth

1-3ymed
  • R&D of 118M TTM is platform investment phase
  • Gross margin 45% stable while revenue scales
  • Operating margin 1.5% has 10x expansion runway
Gross profit 1Y growth 24% matches revenue growthEBITDA 182M vs operating income 14M shows D&A gapDebt/equity 0.03 provides flexibility

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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