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Alphabet Inc

GOOG
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Alphabet Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 32.2% vs industry median -2.4% - profitable at scale while peers lose money[Operating Margin TTM]
  • R&D spend 55.6B TTM (14% of revenue) is 910x industry median - massive AI/cloud moat investment[Research and Development TTM]
  • Debt/equity 0.09 with 23B cash vs 33.7B total debt - near net-zero leverage despite 78B capex TTM[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Exceeds 85B or FCF/Capex ratio falls below 0.8Signals AI investment outpacing monetization - current ratio 0.94
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 28%Would indicate cost structure inflecting negatively against revenue growth
  • ROIC TTM: Drops below 25%Signals diminishing returns on massive capital deployment

Bull Case

ROIC 32.6% vs industry -0.6% with 408B invested capital - exceptional capital allocation at massive scale creates compounding advantage competitors cannot replicate

ROIC TTMInvested CapitalFree Cash Flow TTM

FCF 73.6B TTM (19% yield on revenue) with minimal leverage funds 78B capex cycle while maintaining financial flexibility

Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to EquityCapital Expenditure TTM

Bear Case

Capex 78B TTM (20% of revenue) must generate returns - AI infrastructure race could pressure FCF if monetization lags investment

Capital Expenditure TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

Regulatory overhang on search/advertising dominance could force structural changes to 385B revenue base

Total Revenue TTMOperating Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

AI infrastructure buildout to drive sustained capex but widen competitive moat

1-3yhigh
  • 78B capex TTM (18x industry median) signals aggressive AI/cloud expansion
  • ROIC 32.6% proves capital deployment generates strong returns
  • FCF 73.6B TTM funds growth without balance sheet strain
Capital Expenditure TTM: -77.9BROIC TTM: 32.6% vs industry -0.6%Free Cash Flow TTM: 73.6B

Margin expansion potential as AI products monetize against fixed cost base

1-3ymed
  • Net margin 32.2% with room to leverage 104B operating expense base
  • Gross margin 59.2% stable despite infrastructure investment
Net Margin TTM: 32.2%Operating Expense TTM: 104BGross Margin TTM: 59.2%
Valuation Context
Caveats

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