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Fractyl Health Inc

GUTS
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Fractyl Health Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Cash runway critical: 77.7M cash vs -86.8M FCF TTM implies <12 months runway without new financing[Cash and Equivalents / Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Negative equity (-3.2M) with 62.2M total debt - balance sheet technically insolvent, dependent on future capital raises[Common Stockholders Equity / Total Debt]
  • Revenue collapsed 97% YoY to just 3K TTM while burning 78.3M on R&D - pure clinical-stage bet[Total Revenue 1yr Growth TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 50M or 6 months runwayTriggers forced financing at distressed terms, severe dilution risk
  • Net Common Stock Issuance: New equity raise announcedSignals runway extension but quantifies dilution impact
  • Research and Development TTM: Material reduction from 78.3M quarterly run rateCould indicate pipeline setback or strategic pivot

Bull Case

Recent 78.2M equity raise demonstrates capital market access; 61M working capital provides near-term operational buffer

Net Common Stock IssuanceWorking Capital

78.3M R&D spend (80% of OpEx) focused on pipeline - successful clinical readout could transform valuation from 145M market cap

Research and Development TTMMarket Cap TTM

Bear Case

Negative equity (-3.2M) and 62M debt create existential financing risk; any capital raise highly dilutive to 64.7M shares outstanding

Common Stockholders EquityTotal DebtShares Outstanding

97% revenue decline signals no commercial traction; 98.7M annual burn unsustainable without breakthrough clinical data

Total Revenue 1yr Growth TTMOperating Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Binary outcome: either successful financing/clinical data or dilution/failure within 12 months

3-12mhigh
  • Sub-12 month cash runway at current burn
  • No meaningful revenue to offset expenses
  • Recent 78.2M equity raise shows capital access
FCF -86.8M TTM vs 77.7M cashRevenue 3K vs OpEx 98.7M TTMNet stock issuance 78.2M in period
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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