HT

Hertz Global Holdings Inc

HTZ
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Hertz Global Holdings Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-16

Snapshot

  • Negative equity of -317M with 19.7B debt (8x EV/EBITDA) - balance sheet in distress requiring restructuring or dilution.[Total Equity]
  • FCF of -8.7B TTM driven by 10.6B capex (fleet purchases) - burning cash despite 2.5B EBITDA.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Gross margin 3% TTM vs industry median 38% - fleet depreciation/costs consuming nearly all revenue.[Gross Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Quarterly Capex: Falls below 1.5B/quarter sustainedSignals fleet investment normalization - path to FCF positive
  • Gross Margin TTM: Rises above 10%Indicates fleet depreciation/utilization improving - operating leverage kicks in
  • Total Debt: Any covenant breach or refinancing announcementDebt restructuring could wipe equity or trigger dilutive capital raise

Bull Case

Trading at 0.22x P/S vs industry 1.25x - if margins normalize to even 5% net, stock reprices dramatically from 1.9B market cap.

P/S RatioMarket Cap TTMNet Margin TTM

15.6B PPE (fleet) provides asset backing; orderly liquidation value likely exceeds current equity value.

PPEEnterprise ValueTotal Debt

Bear Case

Interest expense of 1.2B TTM exceeds operating income by 1.9B - company cannot service debt from operations without asset sales.

Interest Expense TTMOperating Income TTMTotal Debt

Negative equity (-317M) and -4.2B tangible book value signal insolvency risk; debt covenants likely under pressure.

Total EquityTangible Book ValueCurrent Liabilities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Fleet rationalization could restore positive FCF within 18 months if capex normalizes to 2-3B annually.

1-3ylow
  • Capex of 10.6B TTM is unsustainable
  • EBITDA of 2.5B provides base cash generation
  • EV fleet transition costs should peak
Operating cash flow 1.8B TTM positiveInterest expense 1.2B manageable vs EBITDAIndustry capex median -929M

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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