IL

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust

ILPT
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Industrial Logistics Properties Trust AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • Debt-to-equity of 8.5x with interest expense (273M TTM) consuming 61% of revenue - net income negative at -88.5M despite 32% operating margin[Debt to Equity]
  • Trading at 0.74x book value (494M equity) while P/S of 0.82x is 82% below industry median of 4.5x - distressed pricing[P/B Ratio]
  • FCF of 39M TTM covers only 14% of 273M annual interest burden - refinancing risk is existential[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Exceeds EBITDA (currently 89% of EBITDA)Would signal inability to service debt from operations - bankruptcy trigger
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 10x or equity dilution announcedEquity raise at 0.74x book would be massively dilutive to existing holders
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 30M or turns negativeCurrent 39M FCF barely covers 3.3M dividend - any decline forces cuts

Bull Case

Deep value at 0.74x book with 86% gross margin and 32% operating margin - if rates decline, equity could re-rate 2-3x from distressed levels

P/B RatioGross MarginOperating Margin

Industrial logistics assets (5.2B) in high-demand sector - strategic buyer or restructuring could unlock value above current 366M market cap

Total AssetsMarket CapEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Capital structure is broken: 8.5x debt/equity with 273M interest vs 307M EBITDA leaves zero margin for error - dilution or default likely

Debt to EquityInterest ExpenseEBITDA

Negative ROE (-16.4%), ROA (-1.7%), ROIC (-1.8%) TTM indicate value destruction - equity is melting ice cube without restructuring

ROEROAROIC

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Interest expense trajectory determines survival - 273M annual burden vs 39M FCF is unsustainable

1-3yhigh
  • 4.2B total debt at elevated rates
  • EBITDA of 307M provides only 1.1x interest coverage
  • Dividend already slashed to 0.08/share from historical levels
Interest expense 273M vs EBITDA 307M TTMNet income -88.5M TTM despite positive operating incomeFCF 39M insufficient for debt service
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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