IN

Intel Corp

INTC
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Intel Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM is -8.4B with capex of 17B (32% of revenue) - burning cash to fund foundry buildout while operating income is -104M[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • R&D spend of 14.4B TTM (27% of revenue) vs industry median capex of 19M - massive investment with near-zero operating returns[Research and Development TTM]
  • Goodwill of 23.9B is 22% of equity; unusual items of 3.9B and 5.5B business sale gains mask underlying -5.3B operating loss[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive for 2 consecutive quartersSignals capex cycle peaking and foundry utilization improving
  • Operating Margin TTM: Exceeds 5% without one-time gainsProves manufacturing cost structure can compete with fabless peers
  • Asset Turnover TTM: Rises above 0.35Validates 105B PPE investment generating adequate revenue

Bull Case

105B PPE base and 14.4B R&D create barriers; if foundry wins external customers, asset turnover doubles to 0.54 generating 5B+ operating income

PPEResearch and Development TTMAsset Turnover TTM

P/B of 2.3x on 80B tangible book; trading at 3.4x sales vs 3.0x median despite 53B revenue scale - not pricing in recovery

P/B RatioP/S RatioTangible Book Value

Bear Case

46.5B debt at 0.44 D/E with -8.4B FCF; 1B interest expense consumes 12% of EBITDA while competitors like TSMC generate 40%+ FCF margins

Total DebtFree Cash Flow TTMInterest Expense TTM

EPS TTM -$0.25 with 5.3B special charges; stripping 5.5B business sale gains reveals structural unprofitability in core operations

EPS TTMSpecial Income ChargesGain on Sale of Business

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Foundry capex cycle peaks 2025-2026; FCF inflection depends on fab utilization reaching 70%+

3-5ylow
  • Capex 17B TTM vs 8.6B operating cash flow
  • 105B PPE base requires scale to generate returns
  • CHIPS Act subsidies reduce net investment burden
ROIC TTM 0.1% vs industry median -0.3%Asset turnover 0.27 vs median 0.58Operating margin -0.2% vs median 2.4%
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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