IT

Itau Unibanco Holding SA

ITUB
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Itau Unibanco Holding SA AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • P/E of 1.9x and P/B of 0.43x with 21% ROE TTM - trading at extreme discount despite strong profitability[PE Ratio]
  • Dividend yield ~69% (5.06 DPS vs 7.37 share price implied) - payout exceeds earnings, unsustainable[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]
  • FCF of 65.9B BRL (TTM) covers 80% of market cap - exceptional cash generation relative to valuation[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Margin TTM: Falls below 20%Current 27% margin drives ROE; compression signals competitive/macro pressure
  • Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Cut announced or payout ratio normalizedCurrent payout exceeds earnings - cut would remove key holder incentive
  • ROE TTM: Drops below 15%At 0.43x P/B, ROE decline destroys value creation thesis

Bull Case

Trading at 0.43x book with 21% ROE - if ROE sustains, implies 49% annual return at current P/B. FCF of 65.9B covers entire market cap in 1.3 years.

PB RatioROE TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

5Y EPS CAGR of 18.6% with revenue CAGR of 11.7% demonstrates consistent earnings leverage. Net margin 27% shows pricing power.

EPS Growth 5YTotal Revenue 5Y GrowthNet Margin TTM

Bear Case

Interest expense (218B) is 3x interest income (71B) - spread compression risk if rates normalize. ROIC only 6.1% vs 21% ROE signals leverage dependency.

Interest Expense TTMInterest IncomeROIC TTM

Dividend payout (5.06/share) exceeds EPS (3.94) by 28% - mathematically unsustainable without capital erosion or cut.

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMEPS TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Valuation gap likely to persist due to Brazil macro risk despite strong fundamentals

1-3ymed
  • EM bank discount reflects currency/political risk premium
  • 2.45x debt/equity typical for banks but limits rerating
  • Interest expense 218B vs 71B interest income shows NIM pressure
P/E 1.9x vs book value 19.81/shareROE 21% TTM with 27% net marginRevenue growth 11% 1Y but EPS growth only 6.5%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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